TLDR
- Gemini is preparing to launch prediction market contracts after filing with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
- The exchange plans to compete with major platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket once it receives approval.
- Sources told Bloomberg that Gemini aims to begin offering prediction-based derivatives as soon as possible.
- The CFTC approval process may take several months or even years depending on regulatory reviews.
- Gemini raised $425 million in its IPO in September which strengthened its expansion efforts.
Gemini is preparing to enter the prediction market sector after filing with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The exchange aims to launch prediction-based derivatives contracts to compete with major players such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Gemini Eyes Regulatory Approval for Prediction Contracts
Gemini applied in May to register as a designated contract market with the CFTC. The exchange plans to introduce event-based derivatives covering economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts.
Bloomberg reported that Gemini wants to begin operations “as soon as possible,” according to people familiar with the matter. However, the approval process could take months or even years, depending on regulatory reviews.
Sources told Bloomberg that Gemini is prepared to move quickly once the regulator grants clearance. The company intends to expand its trading options through prediction contracts tied to real-world events.
Competition Heats Up Among Prediction Market Platforms
Gemini will face strong competition from Kalshi, which already operates under CFTC oversight. Polymarket, another prediction platform, is also planning a return to the U.S. market soon.
Experts said the move reflects growing demand for event-based trading opportunities. “Prediction markets offer an attractive opportunity for expansion,” an analyst at Needham told Bloomberg.
Kalshi has recently recorded high trading volumes, setting benchmarks for regulated prediction markets. Gemini’s potential entry could further increase market activity in this growing sector.
Gemini’s Strategic Expansion and Industry Trends
Gemini raised $425 million during its IPO in September, strengthening its position among crypto exchanges. The New York-based company hinted at its new venture in earlier regulatory filings.
At that time, Gemini disclosed plans to offer event contracts across multiple categories. The exchange’s initiative aligns with rising institutional and retail interest in outcome-based trading.
Other firms, including CME Group and Coinbase, have announced plans to explore similar contracts. Coinbase recently said its “Everything Exchange” initiative will include event-based products.
Robinhood also confirmed it is launching a prediction market for sports and entertainment outcomes. James Newman of Chiliz said more firms are “taking notice of the prediction market space.”
Gemini’s effort highlights the growing competition among exchanges to diversify offerings through regulated prediction products. However, approval timelines remain uncertain as the CFTC continues reviewing new market applications.
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