TLDR
- Bullion advanced 0.9% to reach $5,232.21 on Friday, extending its monthly winning streak to seven
- Investment firm Bernstein elevated its price projections to $4,800 in 2026 and $6,100 by decade’s end
- Central bank purchases and exchange-traded fund inflows underpin the optimistic forecast
- Trade policy confusion and Middle East diplomatic tensions are boosting defensive asset demand
- Bernstein raised Newmont (NEM) rating to Outperform, establishing a $157 target price
The precious metal advanced 0.9% to settle at $5,232.21 on Friday, marking its seventh straight month of gains. April-delivery gold futures contracts in the United States increased 1.2% to reach $5,253.20.
Bullion has appreciated 6.5% during February. Across the previous seven-month period, the metal has surged 58%.
The upward trajectory reflects market participants’ response to persistent questions surrounding American trade policy and diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran regarding Iran’s nuclear activities.
“Two factors are providing support to the gold market. One is the uncertainty around tariffs currently affecting the market, and the other is the developing situation between Iran and the United States,” explained Soni Kumari, an analyst at ANZ.
The United States implemented a 10% across-the-board import levy on Tuesday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that rate will increase to 15% for certain nations.
American and Iranian representatives conducted indirect negotiations in Geneva on Thursday. Oman’s mediator reported advancement, with technical discussions scheduled for next week in Vienna.
“The recent negotiation sessions have not yielded a definitive resolution, maintaining geopolitical risk factors without immediate escalation,” noted Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS.com.
Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell to a three-month minimum on Friday, diminishing the opportunity cost associated with holding bullion that generates no yield — a favorable condition the asset has leveraged previously.
Bernstein’s Extended Price Projections
Investment research firm Bernstein increased its extended-term gold price expectations, now anticipating $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and $6,100 by the end of the decade.
Analyst Bob Brackett constructed the projection using a model emphasizing net central bank accumulation and ETF movements, combined with anticipated consequences of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions.
Central bank acquisitions decelerated in 2025 but continue substantially above pre-2022 benchmarks. Survey information indicates 95% of central banks anticipate worldwide gold reserves will expand over the coming year.
ETF assets have increased substantially since the middle of 2024. Brackett characterized ETFs as a “swing” element — capable of magnifying price movements when capital flows accelerate.
Market pricing currently reflects expectations of two to three Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026. Brackett observed that bullion has averaged gains of 6.53% during the twelve months after rate cuts, suggesting potential aggregate returns of approximately 13% from monetary policy easing alone.
Newmont Rating Elevated
Bernstein simultaneously upgraded Newmont (NEM) to Outperform, establishing a target price of $157. The firm increased its EBITDA projection for the mining company by 26% to $21.9 billion, propelled by its enhanced gold price expectations.
NEM shares appreciated 2.33% during the session.
In related precious metals markets, spot silver jumped 4.4% to $92.20 per ounce, positioning for a 6.2% monthly advance. Spot platinum surged 5.3% to a four-week peak of $2,393.80, while palladium added 1.5% to reach $1,810.60.
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