TLDR
- Grail (GRAL) stock dropped ~50% after the NHS-Galleri trial failed its primary endpoint.
- The trial of 142,000+ people showed no statistically significant reduction in Stage III-IV cancers.
- Subgroup data for 12 deadly cancers showed Stage IV diagnoses fell more than 20% in rounds two and three.
- Q4 earnings showed a narrower-than-expected loss of $2.44 per share; revenue of $43.6 million met estimates.
- An FDA premarket approval application is active, with first-year NHS trial data already submitted.
Grail (GRAL) stock fell nearly 50% in after-hours trading Thursday after its NHS-Galleri cancer screening trial failed to hit its primary goal.
The stock dropped 48% to $52.25 after the close, then held around 47% lower at $53.33 in Friday premarket trading. That erased a large part of a 200%-plus gain built over the prior six months.
The NHS-Galleri trial tracked more than 142,000 people in England aged 50 to 77. The trial’s main target was a statistically significant reduction in Stage III and IV cancer diagnoses. It was not met.
The Data Behind the Drop
Not all of the trial results were negative.
In a pre-specified group of 12 deadly cancers, Stage IV diagnoses fell by more than 20% in both the second and third screening rounds. Adding Galleri to standard care also cut the number of cancers found through emergency presentation — late-stage diagnoses that carry higher mortality rates and greater healthcare costs.
CEO Bob Ragusa described the results as “the strongest evidence to date that multi-cancer early detection can shift the stage at which cancers are detected at a population level.”
The market, however, focused on the missed primary endpoint.
What Investors Are Watching Now
Grail filed a premarket approval application with the FDA in January. First-year NHS trial data was included in that submission. The FDA review now carries extra weight following the trial outcome.
Grail said additional analyses are underway, and full results will be submitted for presentation at the ASCO 2026 Annual Meeting.
Earnings Largely Ignored
Grail reported Q4 earnings the same evening, but the numbers were quickly overshadowed by the trial data.
The company posted a loss of $2.44 per share, narrower than Wall Street had forecast. Revenue came in at $43.6 million, in line with expectations.
Grail also confirmed it is expanding its field-based sales and medical teams to support demand for the Galleri test.
In premarket trading Friday, GRAL was down approximately 47% to $53.33.
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