TLDR
- Bernstein raised its Home Depot price target 5.2% to $381, keeping a Market Perform rating
- Q4 2025 earnings drop February 24, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $2.52, down 19.5% year over year
- Bernstein trimmed its same-store sales growth forecast by 40-50 basis points due to recent snowstorm impact
- Competitors Floor & Décor and Builders FirstSource both posted weak Q4 results, signaling broader sector softness
- HD stock is up over 10% year to date, but analyst sentiment is cautious with 15 downward EPS revisions in three months
Bernstein raised its price target on Home Depot from $362 to $381 on February 18, a 5.2% increase. The firm kept its Market Perform rating in place.
The update comes days before Home Depot reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 24, before the market opens.
Even with the higher target, Bernstein is not getting overly optimistic. The firm trimmed its same-store sales growth forecast for Q4 by 40 to 50 basis points, pointing to a recent snowstorm as a likely drag on home improvement activity.
Wall Street is expecting EPS of $2.52 for the quarter, which would be a 19.5% drop year over year. Revenue estimates sit at $38.1 billion, a 4.0% decline from the same period last year.
The cautious tone has been building. Over the past three months, analysts have logged 15 downward EPS revisions compared to just one upward revision. Revenue estimates have been more balanced, with eight upward and five downward revisions.
Home Depot has a mixed track record on estimates recently. Over the past year, it beat EPS estimates only 25% of the time, though it cleared revenue estimates 75% of the time.
Sector Peers Are Feeling the Pressure Too
Home Depot is not alone in facing a tough Q4. Floor & Décor, which reported on February 19, posted a same-store sales decline of 4.8% year over year. CEO Brad Paulsen cited “softness in existing home sales activity” as the main culprit.
Builders FirstSource reported its Q4 results on February 17. Core organic net sales fell 13.0% year over year. The multi-family and single-family segments dropped 20.4% and 15.4% respectively.
These results from competitors add context to what Home Depot might report Tuesday.
Back in Q3, Home Depot’s comparable sales rose just 0.2%, missing the consensus estimate of 1.4%. CEO Ted Decker blamed a lack of storms that quarter for the shortfall in certain product categories.
The company also lowered its full-year earnings outlook at that time, citing cautious consumer spending and a soft housing market.
Analyst Views Are Split
HD stock has held up reasonably well so far in 2026, up over 10% year to date. But the longer view is less exciting — the stock has been relatively flat over the past year.
Wall Street’s consensus is a Buy. Seeking Alpha’s Quant model sits at Hold, flagging concerns around growth and valuation.
SA contributor Justin Purohit takes a neutral view, noting the stock looks fairly valued right now and that management’s 2026 housing outlook will be a key item to watch in Tuesday’s report.
Contributor Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA, is more bearish, holding a Sell rating. He argues that margin pressure may be just getting started and that valuation remains elevated relative to profitability.
Investors will be watching Tuesday’s report closely for any FY26 guidance and signs that demand in the home improvement space is finding a floor.
Bernstein’s updated $381 price target remains the latest formal revision ahead of the print.
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