TLDR;
- Apple exported 3 million iPhones from India to the US in April, a 76% surge year-on-year.
- Chinese iPhone shipments to the US fell by 76% to 900,000 in the same month.
- The shift aligns with Apple’s long-term strategy to diversify supply chains away from China.
- Political pressure from both Washington and Beijing may complicate further growth from India.
In a landmark shift in Apple’s global supply chain, iPhone shipments from India to the United States soared by 76% in April 2025, surpassing those from China for the first time.
India Tops China in iPhone Exports
According to data from research firm Omdia, approximately 3 million iPhones made in India reached US shores last month, compared to just 900,000 units shipped from China , a 76% drop year-on-year.
The dramatic swing underscores Apple’s aggressive pivot toward Indian manufacturing as the tech giant seeks to reduce its dependency on Chinese production. The move also reflects Apple’s strategic response to rising geopolitical risks and evolving trade policies under President Donald Trump’s administration.
Tariff Threats push Apple to India
The shift to India is not new for Apple. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the company has been gradually building out its production footprint in India, led by key manufacturing partners like Foxconn, Tata Electronics, and Pegatron.
Foxconn recently announced a £1.5 billion investment to scale its Chennai facilities, while Tata is ramping up its Hosur plant and has taken over Pegatron’s local unit. These investments have enabled India to not only assemble basic models but also produce premium variants like the iPhone 16 Pro.
The timing of the export surge also coincides with the rollout of Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy on April 2, which targets countries with large trade surpluses. Although iPhones were temporarily exempted from the most severe penalties on April 11, Trump has since threatened a sweeping 25% tariff on all imported iPhones unless production is moved to the US.
Growth Likely to Slow
Despite the April surge, analysts warn that India’s current manufacturing capacity may not be able to sustain such growth over the long term. Omdia estimates that the US consumes around 20 million iPhones per quarter, a demand India is not expected to fully meet until at least 2026.
“India’s rapid growth is impressive, but it still lacks the full ecosystem and scale to fully replace China,” said Le Xuan Chiew, a research manager at Omdia. “Many critical sub-assemblies still originate in China, even if final assembly happens in India.”
Moreover, Apple’s supply chain remains deeply embedded in China, home to over 200 of its suppliers. Transitioning complex production processes out of that network is a logistical and strategic challenge — one that cannot be solved overnight.
Political Headwinds from Washington and Beijing
Apple now finds itself navigating a politically charged balancing act. In the US, President Trump continues to pressure the company to bring manufacturing home. “Not India, or anyplace else,” Trump declared in a recent post, calling for iPhones to be built in the United States.
However, analysts argue that manufacturing iPhones domestically could push prices above $3,000 per unit due to high labor and component costs.
“It’s economically smarter for Apple to absorb a 25% tariff than to try and produce iPhones in the US,” said Ming-Chi Kuo, analyst at TF Securities.
At the same time, Beijing appears reluctant to allow Apple’s smooth exit from China. Reports suggest that Chinese authorities are limiting access to key machinery and talent needed by Apple’s Indian suppliers, in an effort to slow down the tech giant’s diversification.
