TLDR
- Intel stock slid 1.3% to $46.18 Tuesday, down roughly 7% over the past week.
- Q4 EPS of $0.15 beat the $0.08 estimate, but revenue dropped 4.2% year-over-year to $13.67 billion.
- Foundry yields of 55–65% remain well below the 80–90% industry standard, with $12 billion in losses from 2021–2023.
- Wall Street consensus sits at “Reduce” with a $45.74 average price target; 26 Hold, 6 Sell, 5 Buy.
- A $100M+ investment in AI platform SambaNova signals intent, but analysts are waiting on results.
Intel stock dropped 1.3% to $46.18 on Tuesday, hitting an intraday low of $45.46. Around 63.2 million shares changed hands — roughly 52% below the average daily volume, suggesting little urgency from either side.
It’s been a tough week for INTC. The stock is down about 7% over the past five sessions, with broader chip sector weakness adding to the pressure.
Q4 numbers were a mixed bag. Intel posted EPS of $0.15 against a consensus of $0.08 — a solid beat. Revenue came in at $13.67 billion, clearing the $13.37 billion estimate. The catch: revenue was still down 4.2% from the same period last year, and Q1 2026 EPS guidance came in at $0.00–$0.00, which didn’t exactly inspire confidence.
The Foundry Problem
Intel’s foundry division is the weight around the stock’s ankle. The unit lost $12 billion between 2021 and 2023 and is currently running production yields of 55–65% — well short of the 80–90% that defines the industry standard.
CFO David Zinsner confirmed on the earnings call that Intel can’t meet current demand, citing “acute internal supply constraints.” Higher costs for memory chips and substrate wafers are adding further pressure on margins. Those constraints are expected to keep a lid on sales and earnings in the near term.
Where Analysts Stand
The Wall Street consensus on INTC is “Reduce,” with an average price target of $45.74 — sitting below Monday’s close of $46.79. The ratings breakdown: five Buy, twenty-six Hold, six Sell.
DA Davidson kicked off coverage with a Neutral rating and flagged a “show-me” reset, arguing valuations already factor in an optimistic outcome. Bernstein held its Neutral as well. Morgan Stanley nudged its price target up from $38 to $41 but stayed at Equal Weight.
AI Moves and Insider Trades
Intel is making noise on the AI side. The company put at least $100 million into SambaNova, an AI software platform company, as part of its effort to build a competitive AI stack. It also unveiled a ZAM prototype through its Saimemory project, targeting AI-hardware development.
Management is pitching a future where one in two PCs are AI-enabled — a big market opportunity if design wins come through.
On the insider front, EVP April Miller sold 20,000 shares at $49.05 on February 2nd, trimming her stake by 15%. EVP David Zinsner bought 5,882 shares at $42.50 on January 26th.
Intel’s 50-day moving average is $43.42 and the 200-day sits at $36.12. Market cap is $230.67 billion.
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