TLDR
- Intel reports Q4 2025 results January 22 with Wall Street forecasting EPS of $0.08 (down 38.5%) and revenue of $13.40 billion (down 6%)
- Jefferies lifted target to $45 citing server demand but warned of capacity constraints and margin pressure from Lunar Lake and 18A chip production
- RBC Capital started coverage at $50 with Sector Perform rating, praising balance sheet improvements but noting absent AI data center strategy
- Consensus Hold rating with $43.37 average target suggests 7.64% downside despite stock’s 116-145% surge in 2025
- Analysts expect disappointing full-year outlook due to PC market decline starting March and production capacity limitations
Intel Corporation reports Q4 2025 earnings after Thursday’s close. The chipmaker enters the report with shares near 52-week highs after a monster year.
The stock jumped 116-145% in 2025. A Nvidia partnership and 18A chip progress drove the rally. Government support added fuel to the advance.
Analysts project EPS of $0.08 for the quarter. That marks a 38.5% drop from last year. Revenue estimates come in at $13.40 billion, down 6% year-over-year.
Wall Street shows mixed conviction on the name. Eight analysts rate it Buy, 19 say Hold, and four recommend Sell. The average price target sits at $43.37, implying 7.64% downside from current prices.
Price Targets Climb But Caution Remains
Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis bumped his target to $45 from $40. He kept a Hold rating on the stock. The five-star analyst sees server demand improving into 2026.
Production capacity presents a problem. Intel is moving Intel 7/10 capacity from low-end PCs to legacy server products. This shift creates supply bottlenecks that limit revenue upside.
PC weakness looms on the horizon. Curtis expects the market to soften starting in March. His forecast calls for at least mid-single digit declines. Higher memory costs could force specification cuts or price increases.
Margin pressure adds to the concerns. Lunar Lake and 18A production ramps will squeeze profitability. Curtis sees margins dropping below 36% versus Street estimates of 36.1%. That represents a 200 basis point miss from December consensus.
The analyst expects muted full-year guidance. Capacity constraints prevent Intel from fully monetizing server demand. PC headwinds and margin compression will persist through 2026.
Foundry Business Lacks Visibility
RBC Capital analyst Srini Pajjuri launched coverage with a Sector Perform rating. His $50 price target reflects cautious optimism. The five-star analyst praised management for right-sizing operations and improving the balance sheet.
PC and server demand looks solid. Intel’s product competitiveness is improving. The Nvidia deal validates the company’s manufacturing capabilities.
Near-term risks remain present. Higher memory prices and supply constraints could hit revenue and margins. Pajjuri pointed out Intel’s missing data center AI narrative.
Stock appreciation depends on margin gains and foundry progress. The foundry business still lacks clear visibility as production delays continue.
Trading Near Peak After Triple-Digit Rally
Intel trades at $48.32, close to its $50.39 52-week high. Current gross profit margin stands at 33.02%. The company plans 70% insourced manufacturing for Panther Lake processors by Q1 2026.
Analyst targets span from $20.40 to $60. The wide range reflects sharp disagreement on valuation and outlook.
Intel’s CEO met with President Trump recently. Trump highlighted the new sub-2 nanometer CPU processor launch. Mobileye, Intel’s subsidiary, announced a $900 million Mentee Robotics acquisition closing in early 2026.
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