TLDR
- Intel releases Q3 earnings Thursday after close with 10% price swing expected based on options data
- Stock could hit $42 (highest since April 2024) or fall to $32 depending on results
- First earnings since government acquired 10% stake and Nvidia partnership announcement
- Analysts maintain cautious outlook with $30.60 average target despite 90% YTD gain
- Investor focus on foundry business updates and impact of recent strategic investments
Intel faces a pivotal moment Thursday when it releases third-quarter earnings after the closing bell. Options traders are positioning for a nearly 10% move in either direction, suggesting this report could be anything but boring.
The math is straightforward. A 10% jump from Monday’s close would push Intel to roughly $42 per share. That would represent the highest level since April 2024. A 10% decline would drop shares to just above $32.
This volatility forecast exceeds Intel’s recent pattern. The stock has averaged 6.5% moves following its last four quarterly reports. Last July saw an 8% drop after Intel posted an unexpected loss and weak guidance.
The company’s last positive earnings reaction came a year ago when management discussed turnaround progress.
Government Deal Changes the Game
Thursday’s report breaks new ground as Intel’s first since the federal government took approximately 10% ownership. The Trump administration deal appears to have shifted momentum for the chipmaker.
After the government investment, Intel secured backing from SoftBank. Nvidia joined as both investor and partner, with plans to collaborate on custom hardware projects.
These deals rescued Intel’s stock price. Shares languished until White House negotiation rumors surfaced in early August. Since then, Intel has surged 90% year-to-date with all gains compressed into three months.
Foundry Business Under Scrutiny
The Thursday earnings call will center on how new investments affect Intel’s struggling foundry operations. Investors want concrete details about operational improvements and timelines.
The Nvidia hardware partnership raises questions about integration and execution. Management will need to explain how these deals translate into financial performance.
Five of seven analysts tracked by Visible Alpha rate Intel as “Hold” with two recommending “sell.” The average price target of $30.60 implies nearly 20% downside from current levels.
This disconnect between stock price and analyst expectations creates tension heading into the report. Intel closed Monday around $38, leaving room for that options-implied $42 high or $32 low.
The government stake and partner investments provide capital. Converting that into results remains the test. Thursday’s numbers and management commentary will show whether the rally has legs or if reality brings prices down.
Traders are split on the outcome. Options positioning shows equal bets on upside and downside moves. The market clearly expects movement but lacks consensus on direction.
Intel’s foundry business has been the weak link. New investments target this area specifically. Whether that money produces quick improvements or requires longer development time will drive Thursday’s reaction.
The earnings call starts after the 4 PM ET market close. Results typically hit before management speaks. Guidance for Q4 and commentary on 2026 outlook will matter as much as Q3 actuals.
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