Key Takeaways
- IonQ shares climbed 21.7% Thursday following better-than-expected Q4 results and strong forward guidance
- The company reported $130 million in total 2025 revenue and projects $225–$245 million for 2026
- Leadership drew parallels between IonQ’s current stage and Nvidia’s early growth phase
- A 256-qubit quantum system is slated for release in late 2026, alongside the SkyWater Technology acquisition
- Street opinions remain divided: one firm maintains a $100 target while another dropped to $35 neutral
IonQ delivered $61.9 million in fourth-quarter revenue, bringing its 2025 full-year total to $130 million. The numbers surpassed analyst estimates, sending shares to $40.88 by Thursday’s close — a single-day gain of 21.7%.
Daily trading volume reached 66.4 million shares, significantly exceeding the three-month average. Such heightened activity typically indicates serious institutional participation rather than retail speculation.
Looking ahead to 2026, the quantum computing firm issued revenue guidance ranging from $225 million to $245 million. CEO Niccolo de Masi characterized 2025 as “a strategic and financial inflection point” for the business.
CFO Inder Singh noted that commercial clients represented over 60% of last year’s revenue, while international markets contributed more than 30%. The company closed 2025 with $3.3 billion in liquid assets and investments.
During post-earnings commentary, de Masi revisited comparisons to Nvidia‘s early days. He highlighted that Nvidia once reported quarterly revenue around $60 million — similar to IonQ’s current run rate. “There’s room for us to go a long way,” he remarked.
He also identified IBM as the primary competitive threat in the space. “There’s two ecosystems — there’s IBM and there’s the rest of us,” he explained. Last year, Gartner identified IBM as “the quantum computing company to beat.”
Next-Gen 256-Qubit Platform and SkyWater Acquisition
IonQ has set a fourth-quarter 2026 timeline for launching a 256-qubit production system. Separately, the firm announced successful deployment of quantum-secured communication links throughout Romania’s National Quantum Communication Infrastructure — 36 connections spanning more than 1,500 kilometers.
The company has pursued an aggressive M&A strategy recently, acquiring capabilities in atomic clock technology, quantum sensing, and semiconductor manufacturing. The pending SkyWater Technology acquisition would internalize chip fabrication — a strategic move that some market observers view favorably.
However, skeptics have raised concerns about expansion velocity. Some analysts question whether rapid scaling at this stage introduces unnecessary execution risk, particularly given that IonQ has not yet achieved annual profitability.
Analyst Community Divided
Wall Street reactions to the earnings release were far from uniform. John McPeake at Rosenblatt maintained his buy recommendation with a $100 price objective. Conversely, DA Davidson’s Alexander Platt held his neutral stance while reducing his target to $35. Quinn Bolton from Needham lowered his target to $65.
This divergence captures the current investment debate: growth enthusiasts see massive upside potential, while risk-focused analysts point to ongoing cash burn and integration challenges tied to acquisitions like SkyWater.
Over the trailing twelve months, IonQ shares have appreciated 66%, substantially outperforming the Nasdaq Composite’s 23% advance. Competitor D-Wave has surged nearly 270% during the same window, while Rigetti has posted gains around 120%.
Following his own company’s recent results, D-Wave CEO Alan Baratz warned investors to anticipate “unpredictable revenue patterns” in the near term. Rosenblatt characterized D-Wave’s latest quarter as “uneventful,” though the firm noted solid bookings despite a 27% year-over-year revenue decline.
IonQ management is set to appear at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 4, with a follow-up presentation at the Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference scheduled for March 11.
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