TLDR
- Amazon delivers Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings Thursday after close with Wall Street forecasting $1.97 EPS and $211.44 billion revenue
- Analysts maintain overwhelmingly bullish view with 35 Buy ratings versus one Hold, average target implies 25.1% upside
- UBS sets $311 target on AWS expansion plans, Citizens JMP at $315 citing Anthropic’s $17 billion revenue forecast
- Company enters report with eight-quarter earnings beat streak and only one revenue miss in past two years
- Capital expenditure projections reach $344 billion through 2027 as AWS plans to double capacity by year-end
Amazon drops its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings after the bell Thursday, February 5. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant faces expectations for another strong quarter.
Analysts project earnings per share of $1.97, up from $1.86 in the year-ago period. Revenue is expected to hit $211.44 billion, marking 12.6% year-over-year growth. The company brings an impressive track record into the report.
Amazon has topped earnings estimates eight quarters in a row. The company missed revenue forecasts only once over the past two years, beating expectations by 1.1% on average during that stretch.
Wall Street Raises Targets on Cloud Growth
UBS analyst Stephen Ju bumped his price target from $310 to $311, suggesting 30.3% upside ahead. Ju increased his AWS revenue and capital spending forecasts, bringing total capex estimates through late 2027 to $344 billion.
AWS plans to double its capacity by 2027. Ju views shares as undervalued considering AWS revenue could potentially double by 2028, which would generate roughly $20 billion in additional cash flow.
Citizens JMP analyst Andrew Boone raised his target from $300 to $315, pointing to 32% upside potential. Boone highlighted reports that Anthropic boosted its 2026 revenue outlook to at least $17 billion.
Amazon functions as Anthropic’s primary computing provider. The AI company intends to spend about $7 billion on inference and more than $12 billion on training models in 2026. Boone anticipates Amazon will capture the bulk of this spending.
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney held his $335 price target steady, representing 40.4% upside. Mahaney noted AWS growth is picking up speed, supported by healthy backlog and AI demand.
Key Metrics Under the Microscope
Last quarter demonstrated the company’s strength. Amazon posted revenue of $180.2 billion, climbing 13.4% year-over-year. This result exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%.
Investors will zero in on several areas Thursday. AWS performance remains critical as the division battles Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud for AI infrastructure dominance. Capital spending guidance carries weight given the billions needed for AI buildout.
Advertising revenue and e-commerce trends will get attention. Operating margin performance across all business lines matters for bottom-line growth. Forward guidance will set the tone for the stock’s direction.
The consensus includes 35 Buy ratings and one Hold. The average price target of $298.53 points to 25.1% upside from current trading levels. Shares have dropped 1.4% over the past 12 months.
Analysts have mostly stuck with their estimates over the last month. This quarter’s revenue is forecast to grow 12.7% year-over-year, better than the 10.5% expansion posted in last year’s fourth quarter.
Adjusted earnings are expected at $1.95 per share for the period.
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