TLDR
- Bitcoin mining stocks have decoupled from bitcoin’s price since July, with market caps rising while bitcoin traded sideways
- Miners are pivoting to AI infrastructure for steadier revenue streams, with equity markets now valuing them based on AI potential rather than bitcoin exposure
- Bitcoin miner debt has surged 500% year-over-year from $2.1 billion to $12.7 billion as companies invest in hardware and AI infrastructure
- JPMorgan estimates the current cost to mine one bitcoin is around $92,000, projected to reach $180,000 after the 2028 halving
- Miners are repurposing energy capacity for AI and high-performance computing to offset reduced profitability from the April 2024 halving that cut block rewards to 3.125 BTC
Bitcoin mining companies are undergoing a major shift in their business model. Their stocks no longer move in sync with bitcoin’s price.
JPMorgan analysts report that mining stocks have diverged from bitcoin since July. The combined market capitalization of publicly listed mining firms has climbed sharply while bitcoin has traded sideways around $109,700.
This marks a clear breakdown in the correlation between bitcoin mining stocks and the cryptocurrency itself. Mining stocks previously moved closely with bitcoin and served as proxies for exposure to the asset before spot bitcoin ETFs launched.
Miners Turn to AI for Stable Revenue
The change comes as major bitcoin miners pivot toward artificial intelligence infrastructure. Their stocks are now driven more by AI trends than bitcoin price movements.
AI offers miners more stable and higher-margin revenue streams. This contrasts with the increasingly volatile and less profitable bitcoin mining business.
The shift follows growing pressure on miner profitability after the April 2024 bitcoin halving. Block rewards were cut in half from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
JPMorgan estimates the current average cost to mine one bitcoin is around $92,000. This cost is projected to rise to about $180,000 after the next halving in April 2028.
Higher energy and hardware costs are expected to keep production costs elevated. Power contract renewals will also pressure margins for bitcoin miners.
As miners allocate more resources to AI computing, bitcoin’s network hashrate growth is likely to slow. This could limit further increases in production costs.
The trend favors large, well-capitalized miners that can flexibly shift capacity between bitcoin and AI. Smaller firms may struggle to adapt.
Some smaller miners have begun exploring other areas. Companies like BitMine and BIT Mining are setting up Ethereum and Solana treasuries.
Debt Surge Funds Hardware and AI Expansion
VanEck data shows total miner debt soared from $2.1 billion to $12.7 billion year-over-year. This represents a 500% increase as mining firms accelerate investments.
The surge in leverage reflects an urgent push to maintain bitcoin hashrate dominance. Capital costs are rising while competition from AI computing demand increases.
VanEck analysts Nathan Frankovitz and Matthew Sigel described this as the “melting ice cube problem.” Mining hardware value erodes rapidly as new, more efficient models enter the market.
Miners historically relied on equity markets to fund upgrades. As equity becomes more expensive, firms are turning increasingly to debt financing.
Miners’ revenues are difficult to underwrite because they rely almost entirely on bitcoin’s price. Debt has become a cheaper and more predictable alternative.
Industry tracker The Miner Mag estimated combined debt and convertible-note offerings from 15 public miners reached $4.6 billion in Q4 2024. This dipped to $200 million in early 2025 and rebounded to $1.5 billion in Q2 2025.
Bitfarms raised $588 million through a convertible note offering in October to fund HPC and AI infrastructure across North America. TeraWulf announced a $3.2 billion senior secured notes offering to expand its Lake Mariner data center in New York.
IREN completed a $1 billion convertible notes offering. Part of the proceeds went to general operations and new projects.
Many miners are repurposing energy capacity for AI and high-performance computing hosting. These sectors offer long-term contracts and more predictable cash flow.
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