TLDR
- JPMorgan analysts warn that the Strategy could lose up to $2.8 billion if MSCI excludes it from key passive indices.
- MSCI is consulting on excluding companies with more than 50% of their assets in cryptocurrency, which could impact Strategy.
- Exclusion from indices like MSCI USA and MSCI World could significantly affect the Strategy’s capital inflows and stock performance.
- Strategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, remains confident in Bitcoin’s volatility and the company’s ability to weather market downturns.
- Despite market challenges, Strategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, recently adding 8,178 BTC worth $835 million.
JPMorgan analysts have raised concerns that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, could be removed from major passive indices. This move could lead to a 20% drop in its market cap. Analysts noted that the potential delisting would significantly impact Strategy’s valuation.
MSCI’s Decision Could Cost Strategy Billions
On November 19, JPMorgan warned that MSCI may soon exclude Strategy from its passive fund indices. This would affect MSCI’s USA and World indices, two critical benchmarks for institutional investors. Exclusion could result in Strategy losing up to $2.8 billion, according to JPMorgan’s estimate.
The decision stems from MSCI’s consultation on whether to exclude crypto-heavy companies from its indices. Firms with more than 50% of their assets in cryptocurrency would be excluded. The final decision is expected on January 15, 2026.
Strategy holds the largest Bitcoin treasury in the corporate sector, with around $59.5 billion in BTC. The company’s inclusion in MSCI indices has provided substantial capital, especially from passive investors. Losing access to these indices would likely affect Strategy’s capital inflows and stock performance.
In addition to MSCI, Strategy is also part of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 600 indices. JPMorgan analysts warned that exclusion from these indices could cost the company another $8.8 billion. Strategy has previously faced challenges in joining the S&P 500, despite meeting technical requirements.
However, Strategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, remains unperturbed by these concerns. He asserts that the company is designed to withstand substantial drawdowns. “The company is engineered to take an 80% to 90% drawdown and keep on ticking,” said Saylor.
Saylor remains confident that Bitcoin’s volatility is manageable. He believes that BTC will be 1.5 times as volatile as the S&P 500, but will ultimately outperform it. Despite recent market fluctuations, Saylor’s stance has not wavered.
MicroStrategy Continues to Accumulate Bitcoin Despite Market Fluctuations
Despite JPMorgan’s warning, Strategy continues its Bitcoin accumulation. In the past week, the company added 8,178 BTC to its holdings, valued at $835 million. The purchase raised its average cost basis to $74,443 per Bitcoin.
Saylor has dismissed rumors about the company selling Bitcoin. On social media, he confirmed that Strategy had been actively buying Bitcoin between November 10 and 16. These actions reinforce his belief that Bitcoin remains a solid investment for the firm’s long-term growth.
Institutional interest in Strategy continues to grow. Recently, Canada’s CPP pension fund disclosed an $80 million stake, while Florida’s pension fund holds a $47 million position. Despite the market challenges, Strategy’s leadership remains focused on its Bitcoin strategy.
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