TLDR
- Jump Trading is taking minority ownership in Polymarket and Kalshi through a liquidity-for-equity agreement
- Polymarket raised $2 billion at a $9 billion valuation while Kalshi secured $1 billion at $11 billion valuation
- Industry experts predict prediction markets could reach trillions in annual trading volume by the end of the decade
- Polymarket operates on Polygon blockchain while Kalshi is a federally regulated centralized platform
- State regulators in four states are challenging Kalshi despite federal CFTC approval
Jump Trading will acquire minority stakes in prediction market leaders Polymarket and Kalshi. The quantitative trading firm based in Chicago will receive equity in exchange for market-making services.
Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg about the deal on Monday. Specific ownership percentages were not revealed.
Jump’s equity position in Polymarket will increase based on the liquidity it provides. The firm will receive a predetermined equity amount in Kalshi.
Jump Trading has operated for more than 20 years in proprietary financial trading. The company has expanded heavily into cryptocurrency and blockchain markets.
The firm serves as both a market maker and venture investor in digital assets. Jump has backed exchanges and blockchain infrastructure through its investment arms.
Billion-Dollar Valuations
Both prediction platforms recently completed major funding rounds. Polymarket raised $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange.
That funding valued Polymarket at $9 billion. Kalshi raised $1 billion in early December.
The December round valued Kalshi at $11 billion. Both platforms have experienced rapid growth in recent months.
Trading volumes on both platforms have climbed since September. Polymarket’s monthly volume surged at the start of 2026.
The platforms operate differently despite offering similar services. Polymarket is built on the Polygon blockchain as a decentralized platform.
Users can trade prediction contracts with onchain settlement. All transactions occur through blockchain technology.
Kalshi functions as a centralized exchange with federal oversight. The platform received Designated Contract Market status from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Industry Growth Projections
Prediction markets attracted mainstream interest during the 2024 presidential election. Polymarket accurately predicted the election outcome through its trading contracts.
This success highlighted prediction markets as effective real-time information tools. Research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming forecasts massive sector growth.
The firm estimates prediction markets may generate trillions in yearly trading volume by 2030. Sports betting is expected to fuel much of this expansion.
Eilers & Krejcik partner emeritus Chris Grove stated sports could represent nearly half the growth. Multiple major organizations have partnered with both platforms.
Google Finance signed multi-year agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket. The National Hockey League also structured deals with both companies.
As of October, Kalshi had matched Polymarket in trading volume. Competing products have launched from crypto exchanges including Gemini and Crypto.com.
Regulatory Obstacles
Legal challenges continue to face the sector. Kalshi has federal approval but encounters state-level resistance.
Regulators in Nevada, Maryland, New Jersey and Ohio have challenged Kalshi’s operations. These challenges resulted in cease-and-desist orders and ongoing litigation.
Grove cautioned that regulatory hurdles could impede adoption rates. Jump Trading previously reduced crypto involvement after the Terra collapse.
The firm has contributed to blockchain development including the Firedancer Solana client. Jump also led development of the Wormhole cross-chain bridge.
Market makers facilitate trading by offering both buy and sell orders. They provide counterparties when natural buyers or sellers are unavailable.
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