TLDR
- American prediction platform Kalshi enters the Brazilian market through collaboration with XP International
- XP Group controls more than $345 billion in assets with a client base exceeding 4.7 million
- Access limited to XP Clear brokerage customers holding international investment accounts
- Launch focuses on economic and financial event markets
- IBJR gambling regulator questions legality, suggesting products may violate betting regulations
In its first international expansion, XP International has joined forces with Kalshi, the American regulated prediction market operator, to introduce prediction trading services to Brazilian investors.
As Brazil’s leading financial powerhouse, XP Group oversees assets exceeding $345 billion while maintaining relationships with more than 4.7 million clients. This collaboration positions XP as the pioneer in delivering regulated prediction markets beyond American borders.
Customers must maintain international investment accounts with Clear, the brokerage division of XP, to access the new trading platform.
Kalshi indicated its initial approach centers on economic and financial events. According to the company, these trading instruments could “increase pricing efficiency and improve market information quality.”
Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi’s co-founder and COO, expressed enthusiasm about the partnership. “As a Brazilian, I couldn’t be more excited for XP to be Kalshi’s first brokerage partner outside the U.S.,” she remarked.
XP emphasized its commitment to offering these markets “with diligence, aligned with client profiles and regulatory requirements,” while highlighting its dedication to financial literacy and corporate governance.
Regulatory Uncertainty in Brazil
Brazil’s regulatory framework for prediction markets remains ambiguous. The country’s securities watchdog, the CVM, granted approval for the first prediction market instrument as a financial product in February.
Yet no consensus exists regarding which authority should regulate these platforms moving forward. Industry observers suggest jurisdiction could belong to the CVM, Brazil’s Central Bank, or the Finance Ministry.
The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) challenged the product launch. The organization contends that prediction markets based on uncertain events constitute gambling activities, irrespective of their presentation.
“Presenting these models as innovation only masks the legal risk, without changing the economic exposure,” the IBJR declared in its official response.
The IBJR referenced global regulatory approaches. It highlighted that British authorities classify comparable products as gambling, while American regulators are intensifying oversight and enforcement activities.
What This Means for Investors
Specific product offerings and the complete range of tradable markets remain undisclosed. Kalshi and XP indicated additional information will be released according to regulatory compliance timelines.
The IBJR cautioned that permitting such products to circumvent betting regulations could trigger “unfair competition, weakening of consumer protection, threat to sports integrity and loss of tax revenue.”
Given Brazil’s recently implemented fixed-odds betting framework, the IBJR maintains that avoiding established regulatory pathways cannot be considered genuine innovation.
This strategic alliance represents Kalshi’s inaugural international venture, with Brazil selected as the entry market.
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