TLDR
- Kalshi posted $4.4 billion in October volume, beating Polymarket’s $3.02 billion
- Polymarket active traders hit record 477,850 users in October 2025
- Kalshi’s Robinhood integration gives it easier mainstream access without crypto requirements
- Polymarket announcing POLY token airdrop and U.S. relaunch by November end
- New York mayoral election became top prediction market on both platforms
Prediction market platform Kalshi recorded $4.4 billion in trading volume during October 2025. This marked the first time the platform surpassed competitor Polymarket in monthly volume.
Kalshi achieved its highest activity in late October. The platform processed nearly $1 billion in trades during the final week of the month alone.
The platform does not use blockchain technology for settlements. Sports betting markets drove most of Kalshi’s October trading activity.
Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October. Bloomberg reports the company is now receiving investment offers valuing it at up to $12 billion.
Polymarket Rebounds With Record User Numbers
Polymarket recorded $3.02 billion in volume for October. This represented an all-time high for the decentralized prediction market platform.
Monthly active traders on Polymarket reached 477,850 in October. The figure surpassed the previous record of 462,600 set in January 2025.
The platform showed a 93.7% increase in users from September. Active wallet counts hit 76,000 by October 31, breaking records from the 2024 presidential election period.
Polymarket created 38,270 new markets during October. This was nearly triple the number from August 2025.
Platform Access Differences Drive Competition
Kalshi integrated with Robinhood to reach mainstream users. The platform does not require cryptocurrency ownership or wallet setup.
Polymarket requires users to hold cryptocurrency and operate crypto wallets. This creates barriers for traditional investors entering the platform.
Both platforms experienced technical problems in October. Kalshi suffered a market outage while Polymarket had temporary downtime.
Matthew Modabber, Polymarket’s chief marketing officer, confirmed plans for a POLY token launch. The platform will distribute tokens through an airdrop to users.
The airdrop announcement likely contributed to October’s activity surge. Users typically rush to platforms after airdrop news to qualify for token distributions.
U.S. Market Return and Regulatory Status
Polymarket is working to relaunch in the United States before November ends. The platform exited the U.S. market in 2022 after a CFTC enforcement action.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined Polymarket $1.4 million in 2022. The regulator has since shown more openness toward prediction market platforms.
The New York mayoral election became the most active market on both platforms. Polymarket’s market recorded $365 million in trades for this event.
Kalshi reported volumes above $71 billion for the New York mayoral race. Both platforms miscalculated Dutch election results in October.
Google search data shows Polymarket receives more user interest than Kalshi. Search trends indicate higher attention for Polymarket in recent weeks.
Both platforms face ongoing questions about gambling regulations. How regional authorities classify prediction markets may affect future growth for both companies.
Kalshi and Polymarket may face increased competition from new platforms. As crypto trading activity slows, prediction markets offer alternative trading opportunities.
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