TLDR
- Lucid delivered 4,078 EVs in Q3 2025, up 47% year-over-year but missing the 4,286 analyst forecast.
- Production reached 3,891 vehicles in the quarter, with over 1,000 more units assembled for Saudi Arabia.
- Annual production guidance was cut to 18,000-20,000 vehicles in August, below analyst expectations.
- Q3 sales jumped as buyers purchased before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired September 30.
- Wall Street maintains a Hold rating with an average price target of $30.90, suggesting 28.6% upside potential.
Lucid Group posted third-quarter deliveries of 4,078 electric vehicles, marking a 47% increase from the 2,781 units delivered in Q3 2024. The delivery boost came as customers rushed to purchase before the federal EV tax credit expired on September 30.
However, the results fell short of expectations. Analysts had projected deliveries of 4,286 vehicles for the quarter.
The company manufactured 3,891 vehicles during Q3. An additional 1,000-plus units were produced for Saudi Arabia and await final assembly.
Through the first nine months of 2025, Lucid has produced 9,966 vehicles and delivered 10,496 units. These figures exclude vehicles in transit to Saudi Arabia.
Reduced Production Targets Raise Questions
Lucid lowered its 2025 production forecast in August to between 18,000 and 20,000 vehicles. Analysts estimate the company will produce approximately 17,800 units this year.
The revised guidance reflects mounting challenges in the EV sector. Many observers question whether Lucid can hit even these reduced targets.
The company builds vehicles domestically but imports certain components. This leaves it vulnerable to tariffs on imported auto parts.
Lucid vehicles didn’t qualify for tax credits on cash purchases. Instead, the company used the credits to structure attractive lease offers that drove Q3 demand.
Industry Faces Post-Incentive Uncertainty
With the federal tax credit now expired, EV makers expect a sales slowdown in Q4. The entire industry is adjusting to this new reality.
Some competitors have slashed prices to maintain momentum. Traditional automakers like General Motors and Ford have created programs to extend credit benefits through alternative means.
Lucid has rolled out discounts and special offers on its luxury Air sedans. These promotions target consumers who’ve pulled back on large purchases due to elevated interest rates.
The company is working to strengthen its supply chain. Lucid has signed agreements with North American suppliers to source critical battery minerals domestically.
Future Products Take Center Stage
The newly launched Gravity SUV is crucial for Lucid’s near-term performance. Deliveries of this model are expected to boost Q4 numbers.
A mid-size vehicle priced around $50,000 is also in development. This car aims to attract mainstream buyers beyond the luxury market.
Analysts rate LCID stock as a Hold based on eight Hold ratings, two Buys, and one Sell. The average price target of $30.90 implies 28.6% upside from current prices.
Shares have gained over 30% in the past month but remain down 20.5% year-to-date.
Tesla reported record Q3 deliveries last week. Rivian also exceeded estimates as consumers bought vehicles ahead of the September 30 tax credit deadline.
