Key Takeaways
- Investment analysts at Morgan Stanley predict Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue will climb 6% in 2026, significantly ahead of the 1% expansion forecast for Singapore and Las Vegas markets
- The special administrative region recorded MOP247.40 billion (US$30.63 billion) in GGR for 2025, representing a 9.1% annual increase
- Profitability growth lags behind revenue expansion, with Macau EBITDA projected to advance only 2% amid mounting operational expenses
- The investment bank revised its assessment of Macau’s gaming sector from “attractive” down to “in-line” with market expectations
- While Singapore anticipates higher gaming volumes, its EBITDA faces a 1% contraction for 2026
The casino industry in Macau is positioned to deliver superior growth compared to its primary competitors in Singapore and Las Vegas throughout 2026 when measuring gross gaming revenue. Yet the bottom line tells a more complex story.
In a research note issued Wednesday, Morgan Stanley projected the Macau gaming sector will achieve approximately 6% year-over-year GGR expansion in 2026. This stands in sharp contrast to the modest 1% growth trajectory anticipated for both the Singapore and Las Vegas markets.
These projections come on the heels of an impressive performance in 2025 for Macau. Government statistics reveal that GGR climbed 9.1% compared to the previous year, reaching MOP247.40 billion—equivalent to roughly US$30.63 billion.
Yet top-line revenue increases don’t necessarily translate into comparable profit gains. The financial institution anticipates Macau’s EBITDA will advance by merely 2% throughout the current year. This falls short of broader market expectations.
According to the bank’s analysis, the subdued profitability forecast represents a downward revision from 2025’s results. Escalating cost structures continue to exert downward pressure on earnings throughout the region.
Rising Operational Expenses Create Structural Challenges for Macau
Morgan Stanley’s research team indicated that cost inflation in Macau has evolved into a structural challenge. The industry’s strategic pivot toward premium mass gaming segments has triggered increased expenditures on player incentives and promotional activities targeting middle-tier customers.
The institution identified three primary factors behind the conservative EBITDA projection. Initially, GGR expansion is anticipated to decelerate during the latter half of 2026 owing to challenging year-over-year comparisons and persistent softness in the base mass customer segment.
Additionally, promotional spending remains elevated. These expenses reflect the costs associated with acquiring and maintaining players within an intensely competitive landscape.
Finally, non-gaming operational costs continue their upward trajectory. These expenditures are partially connected to obligations that Macau’s six licensed casino operators committed to as conditions of their current decade-long gaming concessions, which commenced in January 2023.
Considering these factors collectively, Morgan Stanley adjusted its perspective on Macau’s gaming sector from “attractive” to “in-line” with market consensus. The firm now anticipates reduced year-over-year GGR growth beginning in May.
The bank also forecasts negative EBITDA growth during both the second and third quarters of 2026. This would represent a notable departure from the positive momentum witnessed throughout 2025.
Singapore Gaming Volume Increases Expected Despite Hold Rate Normalization
Morgan Stanley also provided analysis on Singapore’s duopoly casino market. The market comprises Resorts World Sentosa, managed by Genting Singapore, and Marina Bay Sands, operated by Las Vegas Sands.
The financial institution anticipates gaming volumes in Singapore will expand by a mid-single-digit percentage throughout 2026. This growth trajectory is supported by sustained performance at Marina Bay Sands and recently introduced amenities at Resorts World Sentosa.
Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley doesn’t foresee Genting Singapore capturing market share from Marina Bay Sands. The bank observed that Genting Singapore has failed to achieve this objective in recent periods.
Marina Bay Sands documented exceptionally elevated hold rates during 2025. Morgan Stanley projects these rates will revert to historical norms this year.
Consequently, the institution predicts that normalizing hold rates will counterbalance volume increases. This dynamic is expected to leave Singapore’s overall industry GGR essentially unchanged for 2026.
Morgan Stanley calculates that Singapore’s industry-wide EBITDA will contract by approximately 1% year over year in 2026.
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