TLDR
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) stock jumped 5% Wednesday after UBS raised its price target to $110, citing growing AI optics demand and early custom chip wins with Microsoft.
- The company reports Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on December 2, with analysts expecting $0.74 EPS (up 72% year-over-year) and $2.07 billion revenue (up 36%).
- MRVL trades 34% below previous highs due to U.S.-China trade tensions and increased competition in the AI chip market.
- HSBC initiated coverage with a Hold rating and $85 target, expressing concerns about Asia exposure and the sustainability of Marvell’s ASIC strategy.
- Zacks rates MRVL as a Buy (Rank #2) after analysts raised earnings estimates 1.4% for fiscal 2026 and 0.7% for fiscal 2027 over the past month.
Marvell Technology shares rose approximately 5% Wednesday following an upgrade from UBS that highlighted the chipmaker’s positioning in the expanding AI optics market. Analyst Timothy Arcuri maintained his Buy rating while increasing the price target from $105 to $110.
Marvell Technology, Inc., MRVL
The upgrade comes as Marvell prepares to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on December 2. Arcuri pointed to stronger traction in optics and early wins in custom chip development with Microsoft as key drivers for the revised target.
Wall Street expects Marvell to post earnings of $0.74 per share for the quarter. That represents a 72% increase compared to the same period last year. Revenue forecasts sit at $2.07 billion, implying roughly 36% year-over-year growth.
The stock has faced headwinds throughout 2025. MRVL currently trades about 34% below its previous highs. U.S.-China trade uncertainty and fiercer competition in the AI chip space have weighed on the shares.
Mixed Analyst Views
Not all analysts share UBS’s optimism. HSBC’s Frank Lee started coverage with a Hold rating and an $85 price target. Lee raised questions about Marvell’s heavy exposure to Asian markets and whether its ASIC strategy can compete with larger rivals over the long term.
The contrasting views highlight investor concerns about Marvell’s competitive position. The company supplies data-center and networking processors in a market dominated by bigger players.
Earnings Estimates Trending Higher
Despite the stock’s struggles this year, analysts have been raising their earnings projections. Over the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for current-quarter earnings increased 0.3%. Full fiscal year 2026 estimates climbed 1.4% during the same period.
For fiscal 2026, analysts now expect earnings of $2.83 per share. That marks an 80.3% jump from the prior year. The fiscal 2027 consensus stands at $3.36 per share, representing 18.9% growth.
Zacks Research assigned Marvell a Rank #2 Buy rating based on the upward revisions to earnings estimates. The firm’s proprietary rating system weighs changes in analyst projections as a key indicator of near-term stock performance.
Key Items to Watch
The December 2 earnings call will give investors fresh insight into several critical areas. Management’s guidance for the fourth quarter will be closely scrutinized. Updates on optics shipments and new cloud customer wins could move the stock.
Geopolitical factors remain a wildcard. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to create uncertainty for semiconductor companies with international exposure. Valuation metrics will also play a role in how the market reacts to the quarterly results.
UBS’s Arcuri specifically called out progress in AI optics as a catalyst for Marvell. The technology enables faster data transmission in AI data centers. Early partnerships with hyperscale customers like Microsoft could position Marvell for recurring revenue streams in this growing segment.
Marvell’s custom chip business represents another area of focus. The ASIC market allows cloud providers to design specialized processors for their specific workloads. However, HSBC’s skepticism about this strategy reflects concerns about whether Marvell can maintain market share against chip giants with deeper resources.
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