TLDR
- Multiple analysts maintain bullish stance on Meta stock with price targets between $810-$875 ahead of January 28 Q4 earnings report
- BofA expects Q4 revenue of $59.2 billion and EPS of $8.27, beating Street consensus of $58.3 billion and $8.20
- Agency checks reveal Meta ad spending grew 29% year-over-year in Q4 with AI-driven 4% ROI improvements for buyers
- 2026 expense guidance becomes critical factor with forecasts ranging $153-$160 billion, up 30-36% from prior year
- Stock trades at $658.76 with analyst targets suggesting upside potential between 14-37% depending on firm
Meta stock sits at $658.76 with Wall Street analysts projecting substantial upside just two days before the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release. Multiple investment firms are sticking with their bullish calls despite mounting questions about spending levels.
BofA Securities holds steady with its Buy rating and $810 price target. The bank forecasts fourth-quarter revenue reaching $59.2 billion alongside earnings per share of $8.27. These projections surpass consensus estimates by approximately $900 million on revenue and $0.07 on earnings.
Evercore ISI projects even higher potential with an $875 target and Outperform rating. The research shop anticipates a modest beat on quarterly results while acknowledging risks around 2026 expenditure assumptions.
Advertising Checks Point to Continued Strength
The advertising landscape looks healthy heading into earnings. One large advertising agency reported Meta spending accelerated 29% year-over-year during the fourth quarter. Another agency noted total digital ad spending came in at 8.1% growth versus initial expectations of 7.2%.
Meta’s artificial intelligence enhancements are translating into measurable performance gains. One major advertiser specifically cited a 4% return on investment lift achieved on the platform throughout 2025. These efficiency improvements help justify continued ad budget allocations.
Instagram Reels maintains strong momentum as an engagement and revenue driver. Instagram Shops are gaining adoption among merchants. Partnership ads open up additional inventory streams for the advertising business.
For the first quarter of 2026, BofA projects revenue of $52.3 billion with EPS of $6.31. Wall Street consensus sits at $51.2 billion and $6.29. Meta will likely guide Q1 revenue between $50.0-$52.5 billion, translating to 18-24% year-over-year expansion.
Expense Trajectory Remains Key Question Mark
The market’s primary concern centers on 2026 spending plans. BofA anticipates full-year expense guidance ranging from $153-$160 billion, representing a 30-36% increase from 2025 levels. Current Street consensus stands at $150 billion.
Capital expenditure projections should land between $109-$114 billion compared to Wall Street’s $110 billion estimate. These elevated spending levels reflect ongoing AI infrastructure buildout across data centers and compute capacity.
Investor anxiety about expenses has been building over the past five months. Management guidance around 30% expense growth could receive a positive market reaction. Guidance approaching or exceeding 35% might pressure shares lower.
Some analysts have already tempered expectations. Wells Fargo reduced its price target to $754 from $795 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Stifel lowered its target to $785 from $875 despite noting strong Instagram Reels performance in advertising checks.
HSBC maintains the Street’s highest price target at $905. The firm highlights Meta’s early AI investments and substantial technology spending as competitive advantages for its advertising platform.
Meta currently operates with an 82% gross profit margin and has delivered 21.3% revenue growth over the trailing twelve months. The stock trades at 29.29 times earnings with analysts projecting fiscal 2025 EPS of $29.48.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
