TLDR
- Shares currently trade 15% below the all-time closing peak of $437.80 reached on February 2
- Citi upgraded its price objective to $430 from $385 while reaffirming Buy ahead of the March 18 report
- Susquehanna increased its target dramatically to $525 from $345, maintaining Positive
- DRAM pricing projected to surge 171% year-over-year in 2026 driven by data center expansion
- Reports suggest SK Hynix and Samsung secured exclusive HBM4 supply rights for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chip, with Micron potentially excluded initially
Shares of Micron climbed modestly on Monday, advancing 0.5% to close at $372.29, as market participants digested upbeat analyst commentary alongside reports that Korean competitors had secured an important Nvidia supply agreement.
The memory chip manufacturer has experienced recent volatility. Following a 6.7% decline Friday and another 0.9% drop Thursday, shares now sit 15% beneath their record closing high of $437.80 established on February 2.
Market attention is increasingly focused on the company’s upcoming second-quarter financial results, scheduled for release on March 18.
On Monday, two prominent Wall Street analysts announced increased price objectives. Citi maintained its Buy recommendation while boosting its target from $385 to $430. Susquehanna kept its Positive stance but made a more substantial adjustment, raising its target from $345 to $525.
Citi’s Atif Malik highlighted strengthening memory pricing as the primary catalyst. His updated forecast anticipates DRAM average selling prices will climb 171% year-over-year in 2026, propelled by robust data center requirements. NAND pricing is similarly expected to jump 127% year-over-year due to strong enterprise SSD demand.
“Our supply chain discussions and analysis point to majority of the 2026 hyperscale capex revision to be driven by higher memory costs,” Malik stated in his research note.
Malik additionally referenced industry reports indicating Samsung is implementing a 100% quarter-over-quarter DRAM price increase for the first quarter.
The Citi team acknowledged ongoing investor discussion about whether the current memory expansion mirrors the prolonged growth cycle witnessed during the 1990s Windows PC era. Their view suggests Micron stock can sustain its momentum throughout 2026, although they cautioned that relative outperformance might moderate in Q2 following substantial Q1 appreciation.
Korean Chipmakers Secure Nvidia HBM4 Supply Agreement
South Korean news outlets reported Sunday that SK Hynix and Samsung have been designated as exclusive HBM4 memory providers for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin accelerator platform. According to Barron’s, requests for confirmation were sent to all three companies involved.
The development initially sparked questions regarding Micron’s standing within the competitive high-bandwidth memory segment.
However, independent technology analyst Richard Windsor from Radio Free Mobile offered a contrasting perspective on the implications. He anticipates Micron will join the supplier roster later in 2026 as production volumes scale up.
“Furthermore, I do not expect that Micron will suffer a loss of revenues, as everyone is fully booked out for 2026,” Windsor explained. He noted that any manufacturing capacity initially designated for Nvidia could readily be redirected to alternative customers.
Key Considerations for Upcoming Results
Susquehanna’s Mehdi Hosseini projected that memory market supply and demand dynamics might reach equilibrium around mid-2027 as additional manufacturing facilities become operational.
He suggested that increasingly complex AI computational requirements could sustain elevated memory demand even as profit margins compress during that timeframe.
Reviewing historical patterns from the past three memory demand cycles dating back to the 1990s, Citi observed that Micron shares have typically reached peak valuations two to four months before DRAM pricing tops out. Given expectations for continued DRAM price appreciation through 2026, Citi maintains an optimistic outlook for share price appreciation.
The company will release its second-quarter financial results on March 18.
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