TLDR
- Micron shares have declined approximately 20% following Q2 results released March 18, amid concerns that Google’s TurboQuant technology could reduce memory chip requirements
- Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh reaffirmed an Outperform stance with a $530 target, characterizing the downturn as an attractive entry point
- The company reported DRAM average selling prices (ASPs) climbing in the mid-60% territory during Q2, while NAND ASPs surged in the high-70% range, demonstrating robust pricing strength
- Market opinion remains divided: certain analysts view the selloff as excessive, while others point to customer concentration risks and questions about sustainable pricing
- Over the trailing twelve months, Micron shares have skyrocketed 324%, surpassing gains from Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, and Broadcom
The past several weeks have been tumultuous for Micron. Following an exceptional rally in the chip sector — climbing 324% year-over-year — the memory semiconductor manufacturer encountered significant headwinds. The trigger came from Google’s TurboQuant compression algorithm, a lossless data reduction innovation that raised investor concerns about potential declines in DRAM and NAND consumption. Market participants responded swiftly.
Following the company’s second-quarter financial disclosure on March 18, shares have retreated approximately 20%. This represents a significant pullback for a business that recently commanded considerable attention within AI-focused investment circles.
The downturn reflects a simple concern: if Google’s TurboQuant technology can compress information more effectively while preserving model performance, cloud infrastructure providers might require reduced memory capacity for AI operations. Decreased demand for DRAM and NAND could undermine Micron’s pricing leverage. However, this narrative faces scrutiny from multiple market observers.
Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho offered strong counterarguments. He sustained Outperform ratings for both Micron and Sandisk (SNDK), establishing targets of $530 and $710 respectively. Rakesh referenced the Jevons paradox — an economic principle suggesting efficiency gains frequently boost overall consumption rather than reducing it. He drew parallels to DeepSeek’s 2025 introduction, which initially pressured GPU equities but ultimately catalyzed expanded AI infrastructure investment.
Rakesh further noted that Google’s TurboQuant research itself might enable development of more sophisticated models and accelerated inference capabilities, both requiring significant memory resources. He characterizes the present decline as market hyperbole.
What the Numbers Actually Say
Micron’s second-quarter performance presented compelling fundamentals. DRAM bit volumes increased mid-single digits sequentially, while ASPs expanded in the mid-60% territory. NAND bit shipments registered low-single digit growth, accompanied by ASPs rising in the high-70% range. These substantial pricing premiums reflect supply constraints rather than volume expansion.
Seeking Alpha contributor Oliver Rodzianko highlighted this characteristic. He observed that Micron currently faces greater supply limitations than demand challenges, with DRAM and NAND supply-demand equilibrium expected to remain favorable past 2026 according to company guidance. His apprehension centers not on technological factors but on whether Micron’s profitability derives from sustainable fundamentals or transient pricing dynamics.
Should pricing revert to historical norms, profit margins could contract. Rodzianko additionally emphasized customer concentration risk: Micron maintains substantial exposure to hyperscaler capital expenditure, making the stock vulnerable to any deceleration in infrastructure deployment.
Bulls Point to AI Infrastructure Demand
Analyst Dmytro Lebid articulated a more optimistic perspective. He attributed the decline to “irrational investor behavior” and suggested the market exaggerates slowdown probabilities. From his viewpoint, hyperscaler demand for HBM3E memory products remains resilient, with Micron’s supply-constrained positioning supporting margin sustainability.
He contended that continuing demand from Nvidia alone should establish a baseline for Micron’s pricing power.
The company is simultaneously expanding manufacturing capacity across Idaho, Tongluo, and Singapore facilities through 2027–2028 — representing a strategic commitment to AI-driven memory demand growth trajectories.
As of early April 2026, Micron shares traded near $366, reflecting a market capitalization approaching $413 billion with a 52-week trading range spanning $61.54 to $471.34.
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