TLDR
- Micron Technology stock dropped 2% after reports that Samsung Electronics is close to getting Nvidia certification for HBM4 memory chips and could begin shipping in February
- Samsung entered the final qualification phase with Nvidia after providing initial HBM4 samples in September and is preparing for mass production next month
- Analysts say HBM4 sales to Nvidia are not a zero-sum game, as demand exceeds supply and all three memory suppliers will qualify and ship HBM4 this year
- Micron’s 2026 HBM supply is already sold out, and the company is expected to maintain market share in the low-20% range through 2027
- Micron is projected to nearly quadruple its HBM revenue over the next two years, reaching a $20 billion opportunity in 2027
Micron Technology stock slipped 2% on Monday as news broke that Samsung Electronics is nearing the finish line for Nvidia certification of its HBM4 memory chips. The South Korean tech giant could become the first manufacturer to ship the next-generation product.
Samsung has reached the final qualification phase with Nvidia. This comes after the company supplied initial HBM4 samples back in September. Mass production is slated to begin in February, with shipments expected to follow shortly after, though Samsung hasn’t confirmed exact timing.
The news sent Samsung shares up as much as 3% in Seoul trading before gains cooled. SK Hynix, another major player in the high-bandwidth memory space, saw its stock decline on the same day.
This development suggests Samsung could claw back some ground in the HBM market. SK Hynix currently dominates the space, and the shift could reshape the competitive landscape for memory suppliers serving AI accelerators.
Not a Zero-Sum Game
Mizuho TMT analyst Jordan Klein offered a different take on the news. He emphasized that Samsung’s progress doesn’t automatically mean less business for competitors like Micron.
“Selling HBM4 to NVDA or AMD is NOT A ZERO SUM GAME. Demand exceeds supply,” Klein stated. He noted that HBM4 pricing is set to be substantially higher than HBM3e, the current generation.
Klein added that all three major memory suppliers will qualify and ship HBM4 to Nvidia this year. The demand for these high-performance memory chips simply outpaces what any single manufacturer can produce.
Micron’s Position Remains Strong
William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji recently initiated coverage on Micron with an Outperform rating. He pointed out that tight supply across all three vendors is likely to limit any major market share shifts.
Micron’s 2026 HBM supply is already completely sold out. The company is expected to hold onto a market share in the low-20% range through both 2026 and 2027.
Naji projects Micron will nearly quadruple its HBM revenue over the next two years. The company is positioned to capture roughly $20 billion in HBM revenue by 2027.
The HBM market has become critical as artificial intelligence applications drive demand for high-performance memory solutions. These specialized chips are essential components in advanced computing systems powering AI workloads.
Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin server design remains on schedule. Initial shipments are expected to begin around mid-year, with volumes ramping up during the third and fourth quarters.
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told analysts during the company’s most recent earnings call that HBM4 production ramp is planned for the second quarter of 2026.
Micron shares closed down 0.9% at $396.16 on Monday.
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