TLDR
- MSTR stock down 30% from yearly highs despite 25.9% Bitcoin yield in 2025.
- Current price: $342.37, reflecting 1.93% daily drop.
- Company holds 638,985 BTC worth $47.23B at $73,913 average cost.
- Analysts issue cautious outlook with Zacks #4 Sell rating.
- Disconnect raises doubts about crypto-first corporate strategy.
Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), now rebranded as Strategy, saw its stock fall 1.93% to $342.37 in early Friday trading.
Despite achieving a 25.9% Bitcoin yield in 2025 and holding one of the largest institutional cryptocurrency treasuries, shares have dropped almost 30% from yearly highs. The earnings date points to a forecast of negative $0.11 per share, though this represents a significant improvement from last year.
Stock Performance Shows Disconnect
Strategy’s stock closed recently at $327.79, slipping 1.1% on the day within a $320.45 to $331.33 range. Over the past five days, shares declined 0.74%, extending downward momentum. The monthly picture looks worse, with a 9.52% loss against gains of 2.4% for the finance sector and 2.32% for the S&P 500.
Yet on a year-to-date basis, MSTR has returned 13.18%, suggesting lingering optimism among some investors. Technical analysis points to a death cross on daily charts, often a bearish signal.
Bitcoin Strategy Expands
The company recently purchased 525 Bitcoin for $60.2 million at an average cost of $114,562 per coin. This boosted its total holdings to 638,985 BTC, worth $47.23 billion. Michael Saylor, Strategy’s chairman, continues to champion Bitcoin as a superior treasury reserve, arguing it protects against inflation and currency debasement.
The company’s aggressive stance has transformed it from a business intelligence firm into what many describe as a Bitcoin proxy stock. Cash flow from core operations is being reinvested to fund additional crypto purchases.
Valuation Concerns Emerge
Despite crypto gains, MSTR stock remains under pressure. Investors are applying discounts to Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings when estimating fair value, reflecting concerns about regulation, operational stability, and the risks of relying heavily on a volatile asset.
The company’s net asset value has declined, underscoring investor skepticism. Direct Bitcoin ownership may appear more attractive than indirect exposure through Strategy shares.
Analyst Outlook Remains Cautious
Zacks Investment Research assigned MSTR a #4 Sell rating, indicating expected underperformance. Revenue forecasts stand at $118.2 million for the quarter, up 1.84% year-over-year, with projected EPS of -$0.11. While some Wall Street targets reach as high as $564, sentiment is mixed.
Industry strength offers some cushion, as Strategy’s sector ranks in the top 22% of more than 250 tracked industries. Yet its underperformance against peers highlights investor hesitation about crypto-centric models.
Looking ahead
The widening disconnect between Bitcoin appreciation and MSTR’s stock raises questions about long-term viability. While Bitcoin yields support Saylor’s vision, equity investors appear less convinced. Upcoming regulatory developments, crypto price swings, and sentiment toward digital assets will likely dictate whether MSTR shares can rebound.
