TLDR
- Moderna posted Q4 revenue of $678 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $626.1 million on resilient COVID vaccine sales
- The biotech firm reported a loss of $2.11 per share, better than the estimated $2.54 per share loss
- Full-year 2025 sales hit $1.94 billion, topping the $1.89 billion consensus while company maintains 10% 2026 growth outlook
- MRNA stock dropped 0.3% in premarket trading despite earnings beat following FDA’s refusal to review flu vaccine application
- CEO Stéphane Bancel expects 2026 growth from next-generation COVID vaccine expansion and international partnerships
Moderna shares fell 0.3% in premarket trading Friday after reporting fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street projections. The decline came despite better-than-expected financials.
The vaccine maker delivered Q4 revenue of $678 million. Analysts had forecast $626.1 million. COVID-19 vaccine sales powered the revenue beat.
The company posted a loss of $2.11 per share for the quarter. That compared favorably to analyst estimates calling for a $2.54 per share loss. The result also improved from the $2.91 per share loss recorded in Q4 2024.
Full-year 2025 revenue reached $1.94 billion. The figure surpassed the $1.89 billion analyst consensus estimate compiled by LSEG.
CEO Stéphane Bancel credited “strong momentum” entering the new year. He acknowledged challenges in the U.S. market remain.
Growth Targets and Spending Plans
The Cambridge-based company reaffirmed its 2026 revenue growth target of 10%. Wall Street analysts currently project growth closer to 6% for the year.
Moderna expects roughly half of 2026 sales to come from domestic markets. International sales will make up the other 50%.
The company forecast research and development expenses around $3 billion for 2026. That figure aligns with analyst expectations.
Bancel said expansion of the next-generation COVID vaccine will help meet 2026 targets. International strategic partnerships will also contribute to growth.
Shares had surged 36% year-to-date through Thursday’s close. Positive Phase 2b trial data for a melanoma treatment vaccine fueled much of the rally.
FDA Rejection Weighs on Sentiment
The earnings beat came just days after a regulatory setback. The FDA refused Tuesday to review Moderna’s seasonal flu vaccine application.
FDA vaccine chief Vinay Prasad argued the company should have used high-dose flu shots as comparators in trials. Moderna used regular-dose comparisons in its study design.
The company said FDA had approved the trial design when the study launched 18 months ago. Internal FDA staff reviewers supported advancing the application, but Prasad overruled them according to Stat.
Moderna criticized the decision and awaits further guidance on refiling. The company has been banking on its flu vaccine and a future COVID-flu combo shot to drive growth.
Demand for COVID vaccines has plummeted since pandemic peak years. The company needs new products to fill the revenue gap and prove its mRNA technology platform has long-term viability.
Moderna reported full-year 2025 sales of $1.94 billion, above the $1.89 billion consensus, while maintaining its 10% revenue growth forecast for 2026 through next-generation COVID vaccines and international partnerships.
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