TLDR
- Moderna stock hit a 52-week high of $45.44, gaining 19.81% over the past 12 months and 45.81% year-to-date.
- Five-year Phase 2b data showed Moderna’s cancer vaccine plus Keytruda reduced melanoma recurrence or death risk by 49%.
- The company raised 2025 revenue guidance to $1.9 billion, exceeding previous estimates by $100 million.
- Moderna cut operating expenses by $200 million and ended the year with $8.1 billion in cash reserves.
- Despite recent gains, sell-side consensus rates the stock as “Reduce” with an average price target of $30.36.
Moderna stock reached a 52-week high of $45.44 on Wednesday, marking a sharp reversal for a company that has struggled since its COVID-19 peak. The biotechnology firm has gained 45.81% year-to-date and 19.81% over the past 12 months.
The rally came after five-year Phase 2b data for Moderna’s individualized cancer vaccine showed promising results. The vaccine, called intismeran or V940, is used in combination with Merck’s Keytruda. The treatment reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by about 49% in high-risk patients.
This clinical validation represents a major shift for Moderna’s oncology program. The data suggests the company’s mRNA technology can extend beyond infectious diseases into cancer treatment.
The stock traded as high as $46.29 during mid-day trading, with volume reaching over 4 million shares. That’s well above typical trading activity. Previous close stood at $43.00.
Moderna also improved its financial outlook for 2025. The company now expects revenue of approximately $1.9 billion. That figure beats previous guidance by $100 million and surpasses analyst estimates of $1.89 billion.
Cost Cuts and Cash Position
Management announced a $200 million reduction in projected operating expenses. The company ended the year with $8.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments. These moves show improved financial discipline as Moderna works to stabilize its business beyond COVID vaccines.
RBC Capital maintains a Sector Perform rating with a $25 price target. The firm points to potential catalysts in 2026, including the Phase III melanoma trial. Bernstein raised its price target from $25 to $35, citing better-than-expected financial results.
Options activity picked up around the stock, suggesting traders expect continued volatility. This increased attention comes as investors position for upcoming clinical readouts and regulatory decisions.
The company still faces structural challenges. Revenue remains well below COVID-era peaks. Recent quarters have relied heavily on COVID vaccine sales. Moderna is currently unprofitable on GAAP metrics, with a negative net margin of 139.61%.
Analyst Ratings Show Caution
Wall Street remains divided on Moderna’s prospects. UBS Group downgraded shares from buy to neutral, cutting its price target from $40 to $34. Wolfe Research has an underperform rating with a $17 target. Bank of America reduced its target from $24 to $21 with an underperform rating.
Two analysts rate the stock as a buy, twelve have it at hold, and five assign a sell rating. The consensus rating stands at “Reduce” with an average target price of $30.36. That’s well below the current trading level.
The company reported a loss of $0.51 per share in its most recent quarter. That beat the consensus estimate of a $2.15 loss. Revenue came in at $1.02 billion, down 45.4% year-over-year but ahead of the $893.29 million estimate.
Moderna has several upcoming program catalysts scheduled for 2026. These include Phase 3 readouts for seasonal vaccines and pivotal oncology trials. However, these remain binary events with uncertain outcomes.
Director Noubar Afeyan sold 23,853 shares in December at an average price of $29.48. The transaction totaled $703,186.44. Insiders now own 10.90% of the company’s stock.
Institutional investors have been active in the stock. Vanguard Group boosted its stake by 3.2% and now holds 41.7 million shares. Geode Capital Management increased its position by 19.1% to 8.8 million shares. Institutional investors own 75.33% of the company overall.
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