TLDR
- Moderna reported Q3 revenue of $1 billion, down 45% year-over-year but beating analyst estimates of $886.54 million
- The company lowered its full-year 2025 revenue forecast to $1.6-2 billion from $1.5-2.2 billion due to weaker US COVID vaccine sales
- COVID-19 vaccine sales reached $971 million in Q3, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $783 million
- New RSV vaccine mRESVIA generated only $2 million in sales, far below analyst expectations of $20.9 million
- Moderna cut its 2025 operating expenses outlook by $700 million to $5.2-5.4 billion as part of cost-reduction efforts
Moderna shares jumped 5% in premarket trading Thursday after the company reported better-than-expected third-quarter results. The biotech firm posted revenue of $1 billion for the quarter.
The figure represented a 45% drop from the same period last year. However, it beat analyst estimates of $886.54 million by a comfortable margin.
The company’s COVID-19 vaccine brought in $971 million during the quarter. This topped Wall Street expectations of $783 million. US sales accounted for $781 million of the vaccine revenue.
Moderna reported a quarterly loss of 51 cents per share. Analysts had expected a much larger loss of $2.11 per share. The company posted a profit of 3 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Luca Issi called it a “solid” quarter. He noted the results suggested revenues were weighted more toward Q3 than Q4.
Despite the earnings beat, Moderna lowered its full-year revenue forecast. The company now expects $1.6 billion to $2 billion for 2025. This marks a $200 million cut from the top end of its previous range of $1.5 billion to $2.2 billion.
Regulatory Changes Impact Vaccine Access
CFO James Mock pointed to late CDC guidance as a factor hurting vaccine sales. The timing of the CDC recommendation came later than expected and affected US market performance.
In August, the FDA limited updated COVID shots to seniors and high-risk groups. A month later, CDC vaccine advisers recommended the shots only after shared decision-making with a doctor.
These new guidelines created confusion and roadblocks at pharmacies. Vaccination rates have dropped to their lowest levels since COVID shots were introduced.
The revenue forecast cut was partially offset by better international performance. Moderna expects a $100 million bump on the lower end of its projected range for sales outside the US.
At its peak in 2022, Moderna’s COVID vaccine generated $18.4 billion in sales. The current quarter’s $971 million represents a massive decline from those pandemic-era numbers.
New Products Struggle to Gain Traction
Moderna’s newly approved RSV vaccine mRESVIA disappointed in its market debut. The shot generated just $2 million in third-quarter sales. Analysts had expected $20.9 million.
The vaccine faces tough competition from Pfizer’s Abrysvo and GSK’s Arexvy. Both competitors entered the market earlier and have established stronger footholds.
Moderna began commercial sales of its redesigned COVID shot mNEXSPIKE during Q3. The company is preparing for the 2025-2026 respiratory virus season with this updated formula.
The company is awaiting FDA guidance on refiling for its combo COVID/flu shot. Moderna withdrew the application in May to wait for efficacy data from a late-stage influenza vaccine trial.
Last month, Moderna stopped development of an experimental cytomegalovirus vaccine. The vaccine failed to meet the main goal of its late-stage trial.
Operating expenses fell 34% year-over-year to $1.28 billion. This beat Street forecasts of $1.74 billion. CEO Stéphane Bancel credited ongoing cost-reduction initiatives for the improvement.
Moderna trimmed its adjusted operating expenses outlook for 2025 by $700 million. The new range sits at $5.2 billion to $5.4 billion. The company also raised its year-end cash and investments outlook to $6.5-7 billion from about $6 billion.
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