TLDRs:
- Moderna shares slip 1.4% premarket after prior 11% surge on flu vaccine filings.
- mRNA-1010 filings backed by Phase 3 data showing strong efficacy in older adults.
- Investors assess Moderna’s growth beyond COVID-19 with seasonal vaccines and oncology pipeline.
- Legal challenges from Bayer add uncertainty despite bullish Wall Street research support.
Moderna (MRNA) stock opened lower in premarket trading on Wednesday, sliding 1.4% to $35.15 following a sharp 10.9% rally the day before.
On Tuesday, shares briefly touched $36.26 with trading volume reaching roughly 20.2 million shares, reflecting heightened investor attention.
The recent surge came after Moderna announced filings for marketing authorization of its seasonal influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010, in the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia. The filings are supported by Phase 3 data showing a 26.6% increase in vaccine efficacy for adults aged 50 and older, compared with an established competitor. CEO Stéphane Bancel highlighted that, if approved, the vaccine could bolster Moderna’s growth trajectory through 2027 and beyond.
Expanding Beyond Pandemic-era Vaccines
Investors have been closely monitoring Moderna’s efforts to sustain demand beyond the COVID-19 vaccine boom. In a shareholder letter released earlier this week, the company reaffirmed its 2025 revenue target of $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion and emphasized the uptake of its three approved products: Spikevax for COVID-19, mRESVIA for RSV, and the next-generation COVID vaccine mNEXSPIKE.
Additionally, Moderna is exploring oncology as a long-term growth driver. The company plans to release five-year Phase 2b melanoma data in early 2026 for its individualized cancer vaccine candidate, intismeran, which is being developed in partnership with Merck. Analysts note that successful expansion into both seasonal vaccines and oncology could transform Moderna into a more diversified, less pandemic-dependent biotech leader.
Competing in the Seasonal Flu Market
The seasonal influenza vaccine space is highly competitive, dominated by established players such as GSK. Moderna contends that its mRNA platform allows it to better match rapidly mutating flu strains, potentially offering higher efficacy than traditional vaccines. In late-stage trials, mRNA-1010 outperformed a licensed GSK flu vaccine by 26.6% in adults over 50.
Market watchers see the move into flu vaccines as critical for Moderna’s long-term sustainability. However, the pullback in premarket trading indicates that investors are weighing the uncertainties that come with introducing a new vaccine into an already crowded field.
Wall Street Support Amid Legal Concerns
Despite the recent pullback, Moderna has received positive signals from Wall Street. Bank of America Global Research raised its price target on the stock earlier this week, boosting investor confidence and helping healthcare lead market gains.
At the same time, Moderna faces legal headwinds. Bayer’s Monsanto unit filed a lawsuit against Moderna and other COVID-19 vaccine makers, alleging patent infringement related to mRNA technology. Moderna has confirmed it is aware of the suit and intends to defend itself vigorously, though the case adds another layer of risk for investors considering exposure to the stock.
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