Key Findings
- An Ipsos survey of 2,363 U.S. adults reveals 61% classify prediction markets as gambling rather than investing, with just 8% considering them investments
- Only 9% of survey participants express confidence that prediction markets can effectively prevent insider trading
- Among Americans familiar with these platforms, 91% categorize event contracts as “financially risky”
- A mere 4% of respondents believe prediction markets provide societal benefits
- Men aged 18-24 demonstrate significantly higher engagement with prediction and sports betting platforms compared to the broader population
Most U.S. adults perceive prediction markets as gambling operations instead of investment vehicles, new polling data from the American Institute for Boys and Men reveals.
The comprehensive Ipsos poll, commissioned by AIBM, surveyed 2,363 adults representing the U.S. population. Researchers also included an additional 447 male participants aged 18-24 for deeper demographic analysis.
The findings paint a stark picture. Approximately 61% of survey participants characterized prediction markets as gambling activities. In contrast, a mere 8% identified them as investment opportunities.
AIBM initiated this research to examine where prediction markets fit within America’s expanding gambling ecosystem. The institute sought concrete evidence regarding public perception of these emerging platforms.
Public Skepticism Surrounds Platform Integrity
The survey uncovered widespread doubt about fraud prevention mechanisms on financial platforms. Only 9% of total respondents expressed confidence that prediction markets adequately prevent individuals with privileged information from gaining unfair advantages.
Among actual platform users, that confidence level increased to 27%. However, even within this active user base, 70% maintained doubts about effective insider trading prevention.
Online sports betting services received marginally better marks at 13% confidence. Traditional stock markets achieved the highest rating at 30%, though this still fell below AIBM’s expectations.
Jonathan Cohen, AIBM’s policy lead, explained that stock market data served as a benchmark for comparison. The universally low confidence levels suggest participants may view insider activity as an inevitable reality, he noted.
Public awareness of prediction markets remains limited. However, among those familiar with these platforms, 91% view event contracts as carrying substantial financial risk. This perception holds steady at 88% among younger male demographics.
Jessica Wellman, a former gambling journalist now advocating for responsible gambling practices, highlighted the disconnect between industry marketing and public perception of these services.
Younger Male Demographics Drive Participation
Overall platform adoption remains modest, but participation concentrates heavily among younger males. During the previous six months, 26% of men between 18 and 24 engaged with sports betting, daily fantasy sports, prediction markets, or similar gambling platforms.
This contrasts sharply with the general population’s 14% participation rate during the identical timeframe.
Few Americans perceive societal value in prediction markets. Just 4% of all survey participants view them as socially beneficial. Among young men specifically, this figure reaches only 7%.
Three percent of respondents identified gambling broadly and online sports betting as providing societal benefits.
Regarding regulatory approaches, most Americans favored treating prediction markets similar to gambling (59%) or investments (52%). Approximately 66% rejected leaving these platforms completely unregulated. Roughly 25% supported total prohibition.
Cohen emphasized that insufficient data exists regarding actual platform users and their motivations. The connections between prediction market participants, sports betting customers, and offshore gambling users remain poorly understood, he stated.
AIBM concluded its report by identifying critical knowledge gaps requiring further investigation. These include user demographics, potential harms, and whether prediction markets serve as gateway activities leading to problematic gambling behaviors among young men.
The institute stressed that advocates, media professionals, and policymakers currently have an opportunity to influence public discourse and establish regulatory structures before widespread adoption occurs. Cohen emphasized that the dominant narrative surrounding prediction markets remains largely undetermined.
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