Quick Summary
- Freedom Capital Markets shifted Nebius (NBIS) from Buy to Hold following an approximately 70% price surge over two months.
- Paul Meeks, the firm’s analyst, increased his price target from $108 to $154 while citing valuation concerns.
- The stock has exploded 574% in the last year and trades close to its 52-week peak of $149.82.
- Revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for 2026 and 2027 were both increased above Street estimates.
- Freedom Capital believes CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) offer superior risk-reward ratios currently.
Nebius Group (NBIS) has delivered an extraordinary rally. However, following a nearly parabolic ascent of approximately 70% since the beginning of February, Freedom Capital Markets analyst Paul Meeks has tapped the brakes — at least regarding his recommendation.
Meeks downgraded NBIS from Buy to Hold this Thursday while simultaneously lifting his price target from $108 to $154. This combination of an increased target with a lowered rating may appear paradoxical, but the reasoning is clear: the stock’s advance outpaced expectations.
NBIS began February trading around $85.19. By April 10, shares had reached $144.97. That represents approximately a $60 appreciation in barely over two months. The equity now hovers near its 52-week peak of $149.82.
Taking a broader view makes the performance even more remarkable. Throughout the past year, NBIS has skyrocketed 574%.
Meeks isn’t expressing concerns about the underlying business fundamentals. Actually, his outlook has improved. The firm elevated its revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for both 2026 and 2027, placing both forecasts above consensus estimates.
The figures are impressive. Between 2026 and 2027, Freedom Capital anticipates revenue to expand over 200% while adjusted EBITDA jumps approximately 336%.
Growth Catalysts Behind the Forecast
A major driver for the anticipated 2027 acceleration stems from a capacity expansion unveiled on March 31. Nebius announced plans to add 310 MW of AI infrastructure in Lappeenranta, Finland. This capacity is projected to become operational next year.
When fully operational, the installation is expected to rank among Europe’s largest AI facilities. This represents a significant component of the expansion narrative entering 2027.
The updated $154 price target derives from 6 times Freedom Capital’s 2027 EV/adjusted EBITDA projection, versus 25 times its 2026 estimate — capturing the dramatic escalation the firm anticipates between those years.
Meanwhile, BofA Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $150 target. BWS Financial maintains a $200 price objective, following a $12 billion agreement Nebius finalized with Meta Platforms — with potential for an additional $15 billion commitment.
Wall Street’s View
According to TipRanks, NBIS carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, featuring nine Buy recommendations and one Hold. The average analyst price target stands at $165.20, suggesting roughly 14% potential upside from present levels.
In March, Nebius completed a $4 billion convertible senior notes offering — expanded from an initial $3.75 billion. The transaction comprised $2.25 billion in notes maturing in 2031 and $1.75 billion maturing in 2033, with settlement occurring on March 20.
Meeks indicated he now identifies more favorable near-term opportunities in CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) relative to NBIS at current valuation levels.
This downgrade represents a valuation assessment, not a fundamental growth concern. Freedom Capital continues to view NBIS as a compelling AI infrastructure investment — simply one where the share price may require time to align with its current trading level.
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