TLDR
- Citi maintains Buy rating while boosting NEM price target from $118 to $150
- Bernstein shifts to Outperform rating, elevating price target from $121 to $157 on positive gold market view
- Company exceeded earnings forecasts in four consecutive quarters, including a Q4 EPS beat of +24.14%
- Full-year consensus EPS forecast of $8.65 represents 25.5% growth versus prior year
- Stock delivered +0.8% monthly return while S&P 500 declined 2.7% during same timeframe
Newmont’s attributable gold mineral reserves declined to 118.2 million ounces by the close of 2025, compared to 134.1 million ounces the previous year, primarily attributed to divestitures. However, the mining giant maintains significant holdings with 12.5 million tonnes in copper reserves and 442 million ounces in silver reserves.
During the fourth quarter, Newmont reported revenues reaching $6.82 billion, marking a robust 20.6% increase compared to the year-ago period. Earnings per share reached $2.52, significantly higher than the $1.40 recorded in the prior-year quarter.
The miner exceeded Wall Street expectations on both metrics. Revenue surpassed the $6.06 billion consensus forecast by 12.58%, while EPS landed 24.14% above analyst projections.
This marks the fourth consecutive quarter where the company has surpassed consensus EPS forecasts. Revenue performance has similarly exceeded expectations throughout this entire period.
For the upcoming first quarter, Wall Street forecasts EPS of $1.91, representing a substantial 52.8% increase from the comparable period last year. This consensus figure has risen 10.4% during the last 30 days.
Regarding the full fiscal year, analysts project EPS of $8.65, indicating 25.5% year-over-year expansion. This forecast has climbed 11.2% in just the past month.
Analyst Price Target Upgrades
On March 3, Citi elevated its NEM price objective to $150 from the previous $118 level, while maintaining its Buy recommendation.
Bernstein acted one week prior, on February 27, raising its rating from Market Perform to Outperform while increasing its price target from $121 to $157.
Bernstein cited an optimistic perspective on gold pricing as the primary catalyst. The firm also highlighted the appointment of a new CEO with a focused strategy, guidance targets it views as realistic, and strengthening ties with Newmont’s largest joint venture partner.
Zacks Rank and Valuation
Zacks assigns NEM a #1 Strong Buy ranking. This rating reflects the magnitude and trajectory of recent earnings forecast adjustments.
From a valuation perspective, Newmont receives a C grade in the Zacks Value Style Score framework, indicating the stock trades generally in line with industry peers — neither particularly undervalued nor overextended.
During the last month, NEM posted a +0.8% gain, contrasting with the S&P 500’s 2.7% decline. The Zacks Mining – Gold sector advanced 4.6% during this same period.
For the current quarter, analyst consensus calls for revenue of $5.87 billion, representing a 17.2% year-over-year jump. Full-year revenue projections stand at $24.01 billion and $27.65 billion for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively.
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