Key Highlights
- Nexi shares plummeted more than 20% to an all-time low following fourth-quarter results that missed analyst projections.
- Management’s 2026 outlook suggests analysts may need to lower their earnings forecasts.
- Top-line expansion is projected to stay stagnant in 2026, matching 2025’s 2.1% increase.
- The company anticipates generating €2.4 billion in surplus cash flow from 2026 through 2028, with over €1.1 billion earmarked for shareholder distributions.
- Management’s three-year roadmap aims to achieve mid-single-digit revenue expansion by 2028.
Italy’s payment processing leader Nexi experienced a brutal trading session on Thursday. Shares collapsed by more than 20% to reach unprecedented lows after delivering fourth-quarter figures that fell short of expectations and unveiling a conservative three-year outlook that market observers believe foreshadows forthcoming earnings reductions.
The market reaction was immediate and severe, although certain analysts suggest the selloff may have been excessive.
Fourth-quarter revenues remained unchanged at €942.5 million, landing approximately 1% beneath analyst predictions. EBITDA declined to €508.6 million, missing forecasts by roughly 2%. Operating expenses climbed on a year-over-year basis to €433.9 million.
The quarterly performance suffered from persistent challenges related to banking merchant-book M&A transactions and contract renegotiations. Management indicated these headwinds reached their zenith in Q4 2025, though cautioned they will remain a burden throughout 2026 before gradually subsiding.
During an investor meeting in Milan, CEO Paolo Bertoluzzo spoke frankly: “You don’t have to believe we can go to the moon.” He acknowledged that discounts were extended to certain banking partners to secure contract extensions, and noted the company continues to absorb the impact of agreements lost in previous years.
2026 Outlook Shows Limited Growth
Looking ahead to 2026, Nexi anticipates revenue performance will mirror 2025 levels, when the company posted 2.1% top-line growth. EBITDA is forecast to remain relatively stable as management continues funding strategic priorities.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Wood commented that the guidance “implies consensus downgrades” for both 2026 and the medium term. Jefferies characterized the results as “broadly in-line” while highlighting that the 2026 objectives “may feel more ambitious than at first glance.”
Jefferies analysts also expressed interest in understanding how Nexi intends to “ignite growth without risking further contract losses.”
Industry dynamics play a crucial role here. Emerging technologies are reshaping the payments landscape, enabling nimble competitors to offer more aggressive pricing than established firms. Traditional operators like Nexi, which expanded through acquiring banks’ payment operations, face heightened vulnerability to these market shifts.
Medium-Term Strategy and Shareholder Returns
Nexi’s updated strategic plan emphasizes targeting mid-market enterprises to preserve market position, with annual revenue growth expected to reach mid-single digits by 2028. The company also anticipates EBITDA margin improvement by the conclusion of the planning period.
Management projects approximately €2.4 billion in excess cash generation spanning 2026–2028, including roughly €750 million in the current year following strategic investments and increased tax obligations.
The company announced a proposed dividend of €0.30 per share, with intentions to increase the payout by a minimum of 5% each year through the next three years. Aggregate shareholder distributions are forecast to surpass €1.1 billion by 2028.
Bertoluzzo positioned the capital return program as a mechanism to demonstrate confidence in the business model’s strength during what management characterizes as a “transition year.”
Notwithstanding the dramatic decline, several analysts observed that the 2025 earnings shortfall was marginal and that the medium-term projections weren’t substantially different from previous estimates.
According to Nexi, the fourth quarter of 2025 represented the maximum impact from contract renegotiations, with these headwinds anticipated to diminish progressively going forward.
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