TLDR
- NIO stock surged 5.9% Thursday after forecasting first-ever quarterly adjusted operating profit
- Company expects Q4 2025 profit of $100-172 million compared to $832 million loss year ago
- Fourth quarter deliveries reached 125,000 vehicles, up from 73,000 in Q4 2024
- January 2026 saw 27,182 deliveries, representing 96.1% year-over-year growth
- Wall Street consensus rating stands at Moderate Buy with $6.03 price target
NIO stock closed up 5.9% at $4.70 Thursday following a surprise announcement that stunned the investment community.
The Chinese electric vehicle maker expects to report its first-ever quarterly adjusted operating profit. The projected profit range of $100 million to $172 million marks a dramatic shift from the $832 million adjusted operating loss posted in Q4 2024.
This development caught analysts off guard. The Street had been modeling an $80 million loss for the quarter.
The company stated that higher vehicle sales, better product mix margins, and reduced costs drove the profit swing. Operating expenses declined as production volumes increased throughout the quarter.
Using standard accounting methods, NIO projects operating profit between $29 million and $100 million. The adjusted figures strip out share-based compensation costs.
Delivery Performance Fuels Turnaround
NIO’s path to profitability stems from strong sales execution. The company delivered approximately 125,000 vehicles during Q4 2025, jumping from around 73,000 units in the same quarter of 2024.
That 71% year-over-year increase provided the volume needed to leverage fixed costs. January 2026 deliveries totaled 27,182 vehicles, marking a 96.1% gain versus January 2025.
The ES8 model drove much of January’s success. However, deliveries fell 43.5% compared to December 2025, reflecting normal seasonal patterns after holiday selling periods.
NIO emphasized these profit figures remain preliminary and unaudited. The company schedules its full Q4 and fiscal year 2025 earnings release for March, when final numbers may differ.
Analyst Views and Market Context
Wall Street projects Q4 earnings per share of negative $0.01, a sharp improvement from the $0.39 loss reported twelve months prior. Revenue estimates sit at $4.20 billion compared to $2.7 billion in the year-ago period.
Thursday’s stock gain came against a weak market backdrop. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both declined roughly 1.2% during the session.
NIO shares remain well below historical highs despite recent strength. The stock trades about 93% below its February 2021 peak of $62.84. Over the past year through Wednesday’s close, shares had gained approximately 6%.
Current analyst sentiment leans cautiously optimistic. Three analysts rate the stock Buy, two recommend Hold, and one suggests Sell. This mix creates a Moderate Buy consensus.
The average price target stands at $6.03, implying 28.3% upside from Thursday’s closing price. Investors will get complete financial details when NIO reports audited results in March.
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