TLDR
- NIO shares have rallied over 100% in less than five months after hitting lows in April
- JPMorgan upgraded NIO from Neutral to Overweight with $8 price target, second upgrade this month
- Macquarie also upgraded to Outperform, raising delivery forecasts by 40% for 2025-2026
- Q2 earnings report due September 2 with analyst expectations of $0.31 loss per share
- New Onvo L90 SUV and upcoming Onvo L80 model targeting Tesla’s Model Y market
NIO stock has become the comeback story of 2025, climbing from the ashes of a 95% collapse to post triple-digit gains in just five months.
The Chinese electric vehicle maker’s shares have surged more than 100% since April lows. This dramatic turnaround has Wall Street taking notice.
JPMorgan analyst Nick Lai upgraded NIO from Neutral to Overweight this week. He raised his price target from under $5 to $8, representing a 60% increase.
Even after the recent rally, that target suggests 25% more upside potential. The upgrade puts NIO on JPMorgan’s “positive catalyst watch” list.
This marks the second upgrade in August alone. Earlier this month, Macquarie bumped its rating to Outperform.
Macquarie raised its delivery forecasts by more than 40% for both 2025 and 2026. The firm highlighted NIO’s newly launched Onvo L90 SUV as a “potential blockbuster.”
Earnings and Product Pipeline Drive Optimism
NIO reports Q2 earnings on September 2 before market open. Wall Street expects a loss of $0.31 per share, improved from the $0.34 loss a year ago.
Revenue forecasts center around $2.73 billion. Estimates range from $2.52 billion to $2.91 billion.
Investors will watch for margin recovery signals after a difficult first half. Delivery momentum remains a key focus area.
The company recently introduced the new ES8, a three-row SUV now available for pre-orders in China. NIO also cut prices across its long-range lineup to compete with Tesla’s latest six-seater.
The mass-market Onvo brand has gained traction with the L90 SUV launch. Pre-order numbers look encouraging according to analysts.
Key Catalysts on the Horizon
NIO Day in late September will reveal final pricing for newest models. This annual event typically generates sales momentum.
The Guangzhou Auto Show in November presents another major catalyst. NIO plans to unveil the Onvo L80, a five-seater SUV aimed directly at Tesla’s Model Y.
JPMorgan’s Lai forecasts deliveries to rise 50% in 2025 and 47% in 2026. He expects profits to improve in the second half of 2026 if margins recover.
Management has hinted at expansion beyond vehicles into robotics. This advanced technology focus appeals to growth-oriented investors.
The technical picture shows some caution signals. NIO’s RSI reading hovers around 70, suggesting the stock approaches overbought territory.
A disappointing earnings report could trigger profit-taking. The company still faces execution risks while digging out of previous losses.
China’s sluggish economy and soft consumer demand create headwinds. Fierce EV competition adds pressure on margins and market share.
Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus on NIO. Four analysts rate it Buy, five Hold, and one Sell based on recent recommendations.
The average price target of $5.01 implies 21% downside from current levels. This creates a disconnect with JPMorgan’s more bullish $8 target.
NIO trades at $6.38 as of the latest session, down 2.04% on the day. The stock hit a 52-week high of $7.71 during its recent rally.
