TLDR
- Novo Nordisk stock crashed 15% after CagriSema failed to beat Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide in a head-to-head trial.
- CagriSema produced 23% weight loss vs. 25.5% for tirzepatide over 84 weeks, missing its primary endpoint.
- NVO hit its lowest price since June 2021, down nearly 50% over the past year.
- Novo’s CEO still backs CagriSema, pointing to its potential as the first GLP-1/amylin combo drug.
- Eli Lilly rose 3.1% in premarket while Novo sank.
Novo Nordisk took a hard hit on Monday. The stock dropped 15% after its experimental weight loss drug CagriSema failed to prove it was as effective as Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide in a direct comparison trial.
The drop pushed NVO to its lowest point since June 2021.
In the 84-week late-stage trial, patients on CagriSema lost 23% of their body weight. Those on tirzepatide — sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound — lost 25.5%. That gap was enough to miss the trial’s primary endpoint of non-inferiority.
The trial was open-label, meaning patients knew which drug they were receiving. Novo’s Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange said this can create bias in favor of a well-known drug when tested against an experimental one. He said he was “surprised” by tirzepatide’s 25.5% result, noting Lilly’s own data had shown around 20.2% weight loss over 72 weeks.
CEO Backs the Drug
CEO Mike Doustdar held his ground. “We strongly believe that CagriSema has, right now, the best weight efficacy than any product currently in the market,” he said.
Novo filed CagriSema with the FDA in December and expects a decision by late 2026. Doustdar said he expects the drug to reach the market early next year. The company is also running additional trials, including higher-dose combinations.
CagriSema combines semaglutide — the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy — with cagrilintide, a hormone that affects appetite. Novo has positioned it as the first GLP-1/amylin combination treatment for obesity.
A Year to Forget
Monday’s result is part of a longer slide for Novo. When the company first released CagriSema data in December 2024, the stock fell 21% and erased nearly $100 billion in market value.
NVO has now lost close to 50% of its value over the past year.
Earlier this month, Novo forecast a sales and profit decline of 5% to 13% for 2026, pointing to rising competition, lower U.S. prices, and patent expirations on Wegovy and Ozempic in certain markets.
Analyst View
Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten said CagriSema’s commercial positioning is “increasingly unclear.” He estimates the drug could make up 15% to 25% of Novo’s revenue by 2030 and flagged a pressing need for M&A, forecasting Novo could spend up to $35 billion on acquisitions this year.
Eli Lilly stock rose 3.1% in premarket trading. Novo’s Copenhagen-listed stock was last down 14% at 259 Danish kroner.
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