TLDR
- Novo Nordisk stock plunged 18% in Copenhagen after releasing 2026 guidance predicting 5% to 13% decline in sales and profit
- CEO Mike Doustdar tells investors to brace for further drops before any rebound materializes
- Most Favoured Nations pricing agreement in U.S. hammering Wegovy revenues despite successful pill launch
- Wall Street caught off guard as guidance missed expectations by roughly 8% at midpoint
- Competitor Eli Lilly also declined 3.9% as industry concerns mount
Novo Nordisk delivered a punishing blow to shareholders Tuesday evening. The Danish pharmaceutical company released preliminary 2026 guidance showing sales and operating profit will decline between 5% and 13%.
The market response was swift. Shares collapsed 18% in Copenhagen Wednesday morning. U.S.-traded depositary shares had already fallen 14.6% Tuesday.
CEO Mike Doustdar offered no comfort to nervous investors. “People should expect that it goes down before it comes back up,” he stated on CNBC Wednesday.
Wall Street wasn’t prepared for such dire numbers. BofA analyst Sachin Jain calculated the guidance came in approximately 8% below consensus estimates.
The company is now facing its second major guidance reduction in less than a year. In July 2025, Novo cut its outlook, triggering a 23% single-day plunge.
Pricing Pressures Mount
Multiple factors are squeezing Novo’s profitability. The Most Favoured Nations agreement in the U.S. is forcing substantial price reductions. Semaglutide patent expiries in select international markets add complications. Compounding pharmacies selling cheaper alternatives continue gaining ground.
For 2025, Novo reported sales climbed 6% in Danish kroner and 10% at constant exchange rates, reaching DKK 309.1 billion. Operating profit dropped 1% in Danish kroner but increased 6% at constant exchange rates to DKK 127.7 billion.
Regional performance varied. U.S. operations posted 3% sales growth in Danish kroner and 8% at constant rates. International operations delivered stronger results with 10% growth in Danish kroner and 14% at constant rates.
Strong Wegovy Pill Launch Isn’t Enough
Novo had momentum heading into 2026. The Wegovy pill rollout exceeded all projections, attracting 170,000 patients within just four weeks.
Doustdar expressed satisfaction with the launch. “We knew it’s going to be the best in terms of efficacy of 16.6%, we had expected it to do well, but we did not think that after four weeks of introduction, we will have 170,000 people on the pill.”
However, pricing concessions on established products overshadowed these gains. “No matter how well it does in the initial period, the price hit on the existing business trumps, basically, the great pill launch that we’ve had,” Doustdar explained.
The CEO framed the strategy as long-term thinking. “We are creating affordability for the patients, millions of patients that are right now in need of GLP-1 products, but simply could not afford it.”
Analyst Concerns Deepen
Morgan Stanley analyst Thibault Boutherin said the numbers “confirmed our concerns on U.S. prices and mix.” He warned of potential downside if volume growth fails to materialize.
Barclays analysts acknowledged some might consider this a conservative “kitchen sink” forecast that will ultimately be exceeded. They cautioned that similar predictions last year proved inaccurate.
HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar posed a critical question about recovery trajectory: will it resemble “a Nike swoosh or U-shaped recovery?”
BMO Capital analyst Evan David Seigerman highlighted the core challenge. “Following Trump MFN deals and new needed efforts to maintain access in the obesity market, Novo now faces extensive pricing headwinds in the US.”
The negative sentiment spread throughout the sector. Eli Lilly shares dropped 3.9% as investors reassessed GLP-1 market dynamics.
In additional news, Dave Moore will step down as Head of US Operations for personal reasons, with Jamey Millar taking over the role.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
