TLDR
- Nvidia shares have fallen approximately 3% following the start of the Iran conflict on February 27
- CNBC’s Jim Cramer suggests geopolitical turmoil’s effect on NVDA is difficult to measure, though core demand stays robust
- Wells Fargo believes Nvidia’s $1 trillion data center revenue projection for Blackwell and Rubin GPUs could be understated
- Analyst Aaron Rakers from Wells Fargo projects potential 15-20%+ gains above 2026-2027 data center consensus figures
- Major cloud infrastructure providers plan to roll out approximately 22GW and 25GW of AI capacity in 2026 and 2027, respectively
Shares of Nvidia have declined roughly 3% following the outbreak of conflict in Iran on February 27, leaving market participants questioning how much of the drop stems from geopolitical concerns versus other factors.
During Thursday’s episode of “Mad Money,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer presented a framework for investors to assess Nvidia’s current position. His takeaway: the recent selloff isn’t exclusively driven by war concerns, and the company’s underlying strength remains intact.
“Nvidia is a big part of the stock market itself and so it’s the easiest stock in the world to trade,” Cramer said. “I think it’s going down because it is so easy to get back in at a lower level.”
With President Trump postponing strikes on Iranian energy assets until April 6, additional uncertainty has entered an already volatile marketplace. Cramer emphasized that predicting when hostilities might cease is essentially impossible.
Monetary policy enters the equation as well. Rising interest rates might decelerate data center expansion by increasing capital costs. However, Cramer cautioned: “If the war ends soon and we have a new Fed chief, you’ll feel like a moron for staying away from Nvidia.”
From a supply perspective, the technology sector faces shortages in both computing power and memory resources, indicating that Nvidia chip demand is primarily limited by pricing considerations rather than weak customer interest.
“Everything you use Nvidia for is considered mission critical,” Cramer said, dismissing worries about data center energy expenses. Nvidia’s operations rely predominantly on domestic natural gas supplies, which have “barely budged.”
Cramer also highlighted how Gulf region sovereign wealth funds have contributed financing to data center projects. Questions exist regarding whether this capital could evaporate. Yet following his attendance at Nvidia’s GTC event last week, Cramer reported witnessing “incredibly strong” demand.
His bottom line: while not aggressively bullish, when forced to decide, he’d prefer entering positions slightly early over missing potential gains. “You’re ultimately being given a chance to buy a high quality stock at a lower price than you’d normally expect.”
Wells Fargo Analyst Projects Greater Potential Than Nvidia’s Own Guidance
In a separate development, Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers indicated Thursday that Nvidia’s internal projection of $1 trillion in data center sales — spanning its Blackwell and Rubin GPU product families through 2027 — might prove overly cautious.
Rakers maintains an Overweight rating alongside a $265 price objective for NVDA, projecting potential upside of 15-20%+ compared to Wall Street’s 2026-2027 data center consensus.
His reasoning centers on capacity projections: the five largest cloud service providers anticipate installing approximately 22 gigawatts of AI computing infrastructure during 2026 and 25 gigawatts in 2027. Such deployment volumes suggest substantially higher Nvidia revenues than current analyst models incorporate.
“From this, we present a pluggable model implying ~$120B+ of NVDA data center revenue upside for 2026–2027 vs. consensus estimates,” Rakers wrote.
Breaking Down the $1 Trillion Order Pipeline
Within Nvidia’s disclosed $1 trillion+ Blackwell and Rubin pipeline, Wells Fargo calculates that approximately $840 billion should materialize during the 2026-2027 period. As of January 2026, roughly $150-$155 billion had been recorded as revenue.
Rakers calculates that Nvidia deployed around 9 gigawatts of Blackwell-based infrastructure by the conclusion of fiscal Q4 2026, with Blackwell GPUs representing approximately 65-70% of that total. This translates to roughly $25 billion in revenue per gigawatt deployed.
While Rakers hasn’t officially revised his estimates upward yet, he indicated willingness to do so should deployment trends continue exceeding expectations.
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