TLDR
- Nvidia’s Q3 FY26 earnings release Wednesday could create a $320 billion market value swing, the largest in company history
- Analysts forecast $54.8 billion revenue (56% growth) and $1.25 EPS (54% increase) for the quarter
- Options data indicates a 7% price move in either direction following the report
- Stock down 10% from October highs as Peter Thiel’s fund and SoftBank exit positions
- Strong Buy consensus with $242 price target suggests 30% upside potential
Nvidia releases third quarter fiscal 2026 results on Wednesday. The report carries massive implications for tech stocks.
Options traders expect fireworks. Data shows the market is pricing in a 7% move up or down. With Nvidia’s $4.6 trillion market cap, that equals a potential $320 billion swing.
This would shatter the company’s previous record of $276 billion set in February 2024. The average post-earnings move over the last 12 quarters has been 7.3%.
Wall Street forecasts are bullish. Analysts expect $54.8 billion in quarterly revenue. This represents 56% year-over-year growth driven by data center demand.
Earnings per share should reach $1.25. That’s a 54% jump from last year’s third quarter. Nvidia has beaten estimates 90% of the time over five years.
Headwinds From China Sales
China restrictions will impact results. U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips mean zero H20 chip revenue from China in Q3.
These limitations could eliminate several billion dollars in potential sales. The policy affects both current and future quarters.
Despite strong forecasts, the stock faces pressure. Shares have declined 10% since hitting record highs in late October.
High-profile exits have weighed on sentiment. Peter Thiel’s hedge fund sold its entire position. SoftBank also dumped shares recently.
The broader AI sector has cooled too. Investors are questioning valuations and the sustainability of the AI rally.
What Analysts Are Watching
Jim Cramer believes Nvidia could “move the market” this week. Success depends on beating estimates and raising guidance.
The new Vera Rubin AI chips are key. These next-generation superchips offer major improvements in compute power and memory capacity for training large AI models.
Strong Vera Rubin delivery could spark a rally in shares. Weak execution could trigger broader tech sector selling.
Chris Murphy from Susquehanna highlighted the ripple effects. Nvidia’s 8% S&P 500 weighting magnifies its influence.
Results will shape sentiment across semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Murphy estimates the narrative impact could affect $10 trillion in correlated trades.
At the Cerebral Valley AI Summit last month, venture capitalists expressed confidence. Kleiner Perkins partner Ilya Fushman and investor Elad Gil see continued AI investment opportunities despite bubble concerns.
They project Nvidia could hit a $6 trillion valuation by 2026. However, they warned that disappointing results could shake the entire ecosystem.
TipRanks data shows strong analyst support. The stock carries a Strong Buy rating based on 37 Buy ratings, one Hold, and one Sell.
The average analyst price target sits at $242. This implies 30% upside from current trading levels.
Jason Pride from Glenmede noted the wider importance. Results will signal trends in business investment and AI spending across multiple sectors.
The company consistently delivers strong results. Wednesday’s report will test whether Nvidia can maintain momentum as AI skepticism grows.
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