Key Takeaways
- NVDA shares have declined 8.2% in 2025 and reached their lowest close since mid-December this week
- The chip maker’s forward P/E ratio stands at 19.7x, below the S&P 500’s 20.3x multiple — breaking a 13-year premium streak
- Wolfe Research maintains its Outperform rating with a $275 target after Nvidia unveiled Rubin Ultra “Pods” at GTC
- Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, mentioned potential production of approximately 200 pods weekly — translating to roughly $120 billion monthly revenue according to Wolfe’s calculations
- Retail trading data from J.P. Morgan shows NVDA continues as the top individual stock purchase among everyday investors
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) finished Thursday’s session at $109.02, marking the chip manufacturer’s weakest closing price since mid-December, as artificial intelligence stocks face continued headwinds.
In Friday’s premarket trading, NVDA showed a modest 0.3% uptick following Thursday’s losses.
Year-to-date performance shows the stock down 8.2% entering Friday’s trading.
This recent decline has brought Nvidia’s valuation metrics to an unusual position relative to the broader market. The company currently carries a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 19.7x based on FactSet data. This represents a discount compared to the S&P 500’s 20.3x forward P/E ratio.
This marks a significant reversal. Nvidia had maintained a valuation premium over the S&P 500 on a forward P/E basis continuously for thirteen years — spanning from February 2013 through late February 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The premium ended on February 28 when geopolitical tensions involving Iran impacted investor sentiment across markets. Following that date, Nvidia’s valuation has alternated between trading at a discount and slight premium to the benchmark index.
Retail Demand Remains Strong
The stock’s recent weakness hasn’t deterred individual investors. For the week concluded March 25, Nvidia held its position as the most actively purchased individual equity among retail traders, based on J.P. Morgan’s weekly retail flow analysis.
Members of Barron’s Roundtable also expressed uniformly favorable views on the stock.
Broadcom (AVGO) declined 0.9% in Friday’s premarket session, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) similarly dropped 0.9%.
Analyst Outlook: Wolfe Highlights Rubin Ultra Potential
Wolfe Research reaffirmed its Outperform stance and $275 price objective for NVDA following the company’s GTC conference, where Nvidia introduced Rubin Ultra “Pods” — a comprehensive architecture designed for agentic AI data centers.
Wolfe’s analysis estimates approximately $150 million in Nvidia components per pod. About two-thirds of this value comes from VR200 racks, with Groq accounting for the most substantial portion of additional revenue opportunity.
The research firm highlighted that newly introduced components such as CPU, storage capabilities, and Groq integration could boost revenue by 50% beyond VR compute racks independently. Groq LPX racks contribute an additional 25% revenue opportunity above the VR200 foundation, delivering low-latency inference capabilities for higher-tier service offerings.
In a recent conversation on the Lex Fridman podcast, CEO Jensen Huang indicated the company might require production of “about 200 of these per week, just for context.” Wolfe Research calculated the implications: 200 weekly pods equates to approximately $120 billion in monthly revenue potential — a striking figure when compared to current Wall Street consensus estimates of $482 billion annually for 2027.
Rosenblatt Securities sustained its Buy recommendation with a $325 price target, pointing to visibility on orders exceeding $1 trillion for Blackwell and Rubin architectures extending through 2027. Cantor Fitzgerald likewise maintained its Overweight rating at $300 following Nvidia’s GTC presentation. InvestingPro intelligence indicates 31 analysts have increased earnings projections for the next period, with price targets extending as high as $380.
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