TLDR
- Nvidia stock declined 1.4% to $177.74 as H200 chip export talks with the Trump administration stall over licensing terms that the company says aren’t commercially practical.
- The U.S. approved ByteDance’s license request approximately two weeks ago, but Nvidia hasn’t accepted Know-Your-Customer requirements and other conditions.
- China granted preliminary approval to ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, and Deepseek for chip imports, though final regulatory terms remain pending on both sides.
- Shares trade below resistance at $182-$184 with key support at the 200-day moving average around $168 as technical indicators show weakening momentum.
- January 15 Commerce Department regulations require third-party testing and customer screening to prevent military access, with a 25% fee going to the U.S. government.
Nvidia stock fell 1.4% to $177.74 on February 5 as ongoing negotiations with the Trump administration over H200 chip exports continue without resolution. The chipmaker and U.S. regulators have not agreed on licensing conditions that both sides consider workable.
The Trump administration signaled about two weeks ago it would approve ByteDance’s request to purchase H200 chips. But Nvidia has not accepted the proposed terms. The primary issue centers on Know-Your-Customer procedures meant to keep Chinese military entities from accessing advanced AI hardware.
A Nvidia spokesperson explained the company’s position. “We aren’t able to accept or reject license conditions on our own. Although KYC is important, KYC is not the issue. For American industry to make any sales, the conditions need to be commercially practical, else the market will continue to move to foreign alternatives.”
The statement highlights Nvidia’s concern that overly restrictive terms could push Chinese buyers toward non-U.S. chip manufacturers. This would undercut American companies’ ability to compete in the lucrative Chinese AI market.
New Export Rules Add Requirements
The Commerce Department issued regulations on January 15 that loosened licensing policy for advanced AI chips while adding strict conditions. Companies must certify their customers will use rigorous screening procedures to prevent unauthorized remote access to the technology.
Applicants must also submit lists of remote users tied to countries of concern including Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela. Before shipment, a U.S. third-party lab must test the chips to verify they meet specifications. This testing requirement serves as the collection point for the U.S. government’s 25% fee on sales.
President Trump announced the chip export framework in December. The arrangement applies to Nvidia’s H200 chips as well as comparable products from Advanced Micro Devices and Intel. China hawks have criticized the policy as a national security risk.
On the Chinese side, regulators granted preliminary approval to ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, and AI startup Deepseek to import the chips. Final regulatory conditions in China are still being worked out.
Stock Faces Technical Headwinds
Nvidia shares are trading below the 20-day moving average at $184 and the 50-day moving average at $182. These levels now function as resistance. The stock’s inability to reclaim these averages suggests near-term weakness.
The 200-day moving average sits near $168. This level represents critical support that would maintain the broader uptrend that began last year. A close below $168 would indicate more serious technical deterioration.
The Relative Strength Index hovers in the low 30s, nearing oversold territory without confirming a reversal. Trading volume has been moderate during the pullback, indicating corrective selling rather than capitulation.
What Comes Next
Market watchers expect Nvidia to trade between $170 and $185 until export licensing clarity emerges. Dips toward $168-$172 should attract buyers, while rallies toward $185 may encounter resistance from short-term traders.
A breakout above $185 would require positive news on export approvals or broader strength in AI stocks. That could open the door to a move toward $195-$200.
One source suggested some chips will likely ship to China before Trump’s planned April meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Commerce Department typically circulates pending licenses to multiple agencies including State, Defense, and Energy before finalizing terms with applicants.
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