TLDR
- Nvidia reports Q3 earnings Wednesday with Wall Street projecting $54.8 billion revenue and $1.25 earnings per share.
- A potential $300-320 billion market value swing could mark the largest post-earnings move in the company’s history.
- Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore increased revenue forecasts to $55 billion for Q3 and $63.1 billion for Q4.
- Major selloffs include Peter Thiel’s $100 million exit and SoftBank’s $5.8 billion position liquidation.
- The stock has fallen 10.5% in November despite 37 of 39 analysts maintaining Buy ratings.
Nvidia unveils its third quarter results Wednesday after market close. The announcement comes during a period of heightened uncertainty around AI valuations.
Analysts anticipate revenue of $54.8 billion, representing 56% growth compared to last year. Projected earnings per share sit at $1.25, up roughly 50% from the prior-year period.
The company briefly surpassed a $5 trillion market capitalization last month. Since that peak, shares have dropped approximately 12%.
Options data from ORATS indicates a possible one-day market value fluctuation of $300 billion to $320 billion. This would set a new record for post-earnings volatility in the chipmaker’s trading history.
Big Names Exit Positions
Recent months have seen noteworthy investor departures. Peter Thiel’s hedge fund completely divested its stake, valued at about $100 million.
SoftBank Group sold its entire holding worth $5.8 billion. The Japanese firm is redirecting those funds toward internal AI investments.
Gene Munster at Deepwater Asset Management pointed to a difficult situation for the stock. Robust guidance might amplify concerns about overinvestment in AI infrastructure. Modest projections could signal that expansion is slowing more quickly than anticipated.
Shares declined nearly 3% on Tuesday. The stock is down 10.5% so far this month as market participants assess the sustainability of AI spending.
Bullish Call from Morgan Stanley
Joseph Moore at Morgan Stanley increased his revenue expectations before the report. His Q3 estimate now stands at $55 billion, revised upward from $54.4 billion.
The analyst also boosted his Q4 projection to $63.1 billion from $61.2 billion. Moore characterized this potential sequential growth as possibly the strongest in semiconductor sector history.
He described Blackwell as the “AI chip of choice” based on customer feedback. Moore added that the next-generation Vera Rubin chip is generating “very strong” demand signals.
Morgan Stanley’s industry research shows “material acceleration” in spending commitments. The firm estimates 2026 cloud capital expenditure will total $142 billion industry-wide.
Moore kept his Overweight rating intact with a $220 price target. That figure suggests around 21% upside potential from current levels.
Wall Street Consensus Stays Supportive
Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. Among 39 coverage analysts, 37 recommend buying the stock. Just one rates it Hold and one rates it Sell.
The average target price across all analysts is $243.09. This implies potential appreciation of 34% over the coming year.
AMD CEO Lisa Su offered perspective on total addressable market size. Speaking at her company’s Financial Analyst Day, she estimated the data center market will expand to $1 trillion by 2030.
Moore emphasized that cloud customers will likely maintain investment levels as long as pricing dynamics remain favorable. He identified neo-cloud providers, AI research labs, and government AI initiatives as supplementary growth channels.
The analyst concluded that Nvidia’s technological edge appears unchanged. All four largest hyperscale cloud providers are planning expanded capital allocations based on current consensus figures.
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