TLDR
- Nvidia plans to ship 40,000–80,000 H200 AI chips to China by mid-February 2026 using existing inventory.
- New H200 production capacity will open for orders in Q2 2026, according to internal communications with Chinese clients.
- Shipment timing depends on Beijing’s formal approval, which has not yet been granted, sources familiar with the matter confirmed.
- The U.S. government now allows H200 sales to China with a 25% fee, reversing earlier export restrictions.
- Chinese tech firms like Alibaba and ByteDance are seeking H200 chips, which outperform Nvidia’s H20 chips built for China.
Nvidia intends to begin shipments of its H200 AI chips to Chinese customers before the Lunar New Year in mid-February. The company communicated this timeline to clients in China, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The shipments would mark the first H200 deliveries since the United States adjusted chip export rules.
Shipments to Begin From Stock as Demand Builds
According to Reuters, Nvidia plans to fulfil initial orders using existing inventory, with shipment volumes estimated between 5,000 and 10,000 modules. Each module contains multiple chips, bringing the estimated chip total to between 40,000 and 80,000 H200 units. Sources confirmed the company notified clients in China and outlined delivery expectations.
The company also informed clients that it will add new production capacity for the H200 chips later in the year. Orders for this new capacity will open in the second quarter of 2026, according to a third source. The individual noted that actual delivery timelines could change depending on government approvals.
“There is no certainty until Beijing grants formal approval,” the third source said in reference to pending regulatory decisions. All sources requested anonymity due to the confidential nature of the discussions. Nvidia has not publicly announced a specific shipment date for China.
U.S. Policy Shift Allows Nvidia H200 Sales With Conditions
U.S. President Donald Trump recently confirmed that H200 chip sales to China would proceed with a 25% tariff in place. This announcement represents a change in policy from the previous administration, which had restricted advanced chip exports to China. The U.S. government has started an inter-agency review of license applications related to these chip sales.
Nvidia stated to Reuters, “Licensed sales of the H200 to authorized customers in China will have no impact on our U.S. supply.” The company emphasized that it will continue managing its global supply chain to support both domestic and international demand. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has not commented on the matter.
The H200 chip remains widely used in artificial intelligence systems despite being succeeded by Nvidia’s newer Blackwell series. With Nvidia now focused on Blackwell and the upcoming Rubin line, H200 inventory is limited. Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba and ByteDance, have reportedly expressed interest in acquiring the H200 chips. These companies seek alternatives to the downgraded H20 chips previously offered in response to export restrictions.
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