TLDR
- Oklo (OKLO) stock jumped over 10% on October 9 after Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage with a buy rating and $175 price target, far above the current price around $152.
- The stock has surged more than 500% in 2025, hitting a market cap of $20 billion despite having zero revenue and not expecting profits until 2030.
- The U.S. Department of Energy selected Oklo for fast-track pilot programs to build advanced nuclear fuel facilities and broke ground on its first microreactor at Idaho National Lab in late September.
- Wall Street remains divided with most analysts having price targets in the $80-90 range, while Bank of America and Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to neutral citing stretched valuations.
- Oklo expects to burn $65-80 million in cash during 2025 with no revenue until at least 2026, while insiders have sold over $50 million in stock during the rally.
Oklo stock rose more than 10% on October 9 after Canaccord Genuity started coverage with a buy rating. The investment bank set a price target of $175 for shares currently trading around $152.
The company has no revenue yet. It won’t turn a profit before 2030.
Canaccord’s endorsement looks past these near-term concerns. The firm is building its case on a 25-year outlook stretching to 2050.
“We see a new nuclear age emerging,” Canaccord wrote in its initiation report. The analysts expect nuclear assets to grow both in volume and as a percentage of the global energy mix.
Oklo’s stock has exploded more than 500% year-to-date. The rally pushed its market cap to roughly $20 billion.
That makes it one of the most valuable pre-revenue companies in the U.S. stock market. By October 10, shares traded above $150 intraday before closing near $143.50.
The company went public via SPAC in 2024. It traded under $10 at the start of this year.
Government Support Fuels Rally
U.S. government backing has been a major catalyst for the stock. The Department of Energy selected Oklo for fast-track pilot programs in late September.
These programs will help build advanced nuclear fuel fabrication facilities. The DOE also broke ground on Oklo’s first microreactor at Idaho National Lab.
The DOE initiatives give Oklo a privileged role in next-generation reactor development. They let the company bypass some Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing delays.
Shares jumped around 10% on the DOE announcement. Investors described the reaction as “euphoria.”
Canaccord praised Oklo’s “vertically integrated” approach and “deftly constructed strategy” for rolling out small nuclear plants. The firm highlighted the company’s technology capabilities.
Oklo is designing compact, factory-built microreactors. Its flagship Aurora Powerhouse is a 75-megawatt fast reactor cooled by liquid sodium.
The design can recycle used nuclear fuel. Units could run for up to 20 years without refueling.
The company broke ground on its first Aurora reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in September. It’s also developing a $1.6 billion fuel recycling facility in Tennessee.
Oklo plans to build, own and operate its power plants. It will sell electricity through long-term contracts rather than just selling reactors.
Wall Street Divided on Valuation
Not everyone shares Canaccord’s optimism. Most analysts actually rate the stock as a hold or sell at current levels.
The average 12-month price target sits around $83 to $90. That implies a potential 40% drop from current prices.
Bank of America and Goldman Sachs both downgraded Oklo to neutral in recent weeks. They cited stretched valuations relative to fundamentals.
Barclays and BofA have price targets around $117. Citi went even lower with a $68 target in September.
“Nuclear stocks may be running ahead of reality,” Bloomberg warned after watching Oklo surge over 1,000% year-over-year. The company lost about $0.18 per share last quarter on heavy R&D spending.
It expects to burn $65 to $80 million in cash during 2025. Revenue won’t arrive until 2026 at the earliest.
Oklo raised $440 million in June. It now has over $680 million in cash.
At the current burn rate, that gives the company roughly three to four years of runway. But costs will likely increase as it approaches commercialization.
Most analysts think Oklo’s cash consumption over the next five years could reach $1.5 billion. That’s more than it currently has on hand.
Insiders have been selling into the rally. They’ve cashed out over $50 million in stock during 2025.
One director sold 50,000 shares around $134 in late September. That trade was worth over $6.7 million.
Another executive sold roughly 41,000 shares near $70 earlier in the year. High institutional ownership of around 85% means hedge funds and venture backers may also be taking profits.
Options trading on Oklo exploded in early October. Speculators bought near-term call options betting on further gains.
On October 10, contracts betting on shares above $150 saw unusual volume. This coincided with the stock’s intraday jump.
The company secured notable partnerships in 2025. The U.S. Air Force selected Oklo to deploy the first advanced fission reactor on a military base.
The proposed Aurora microreactor would go to Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. Oklo would design, own and operate the reactor under a long-term contract.
The company also struck a collaboration with Vertiv to develop integrated nuclear power and cooling solutions for AI data centers. Through a small acquisition, it added radioisotope production capabilities via a company called Atomic Alchemy.
Recent U.S. laws are streamlining regulations for small modular reactors. Investment and production tax credits for advanced nuclear now extend through 2033.
The Federal AI Action Plan explicitly calls for new reliable power sources to support America’s AI boom. This plays into Oklo’s pitch for powering data centers.
Oklo faces execution risks ahead. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission rejected its first license application in 2022 as incomplete.
The company plans to file a new combined license application by late 2025. A former NRC Commissioner called Oklo’s goal of delivering its first reactor by 2027 “beyond optimistic.”
Oklo’s fast reactor design uses high-assay low-enriched uranium and liquid sodium cooling. Sodium-cooled reactors have historically faced technical challenges.
The company depends on a fledgling supply chain for HALEU fuel. This higher-enriched uranium isn’t yet produced at scale in the U.S.
Competition is heating up in the advanced nuclear space. NuScale Power already has an NRC-approved reactor design.
Companies like Westinghouse and X-energy are racing to deploy their reactors in the next few years. Oklo’s differentiator is its fast reactor technology and fuel recycling capabilities.
Canaccord Genuity is placing a long-term bet on Oklo surviving until 2030 and profiting from what it calls a nuclear renaissance. The firm’s model stretches all the way to 2050
