TLDR
- Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) releases Q4 earnings Wednesday with analysts expecting $0.12 per share loss on $594 million revenue
- Stock tumbled 24% in 2026 after explosive 1,800% meme rally in 2025 pushed shares from $0.51 to over $10
- New CEO Kaz Nejatian’s turnaround plan shows progress with weekly contracts rising from 120 to 303 between September and January
- Q3 revenue dropped 34% while home sales fell to 2,568 units as high mortgage rates hurt the iBuying business model
- Analysts assign Hold rating with $5.00 average price target representing 12.5% potential upside from $4.45 current price
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) faces a crucial moment Wednesday when it reports fourth-quarter earnings. The digital home-buying platform has seen shares drop 24% this year after a wild ride in 2025.
Opendoor Technologies Inc., OPEN
The stock currently trades at $4.45 with a market cap of $4.2 billion. Last year’s meme stock frenzy pushed shares up 1,800% before reality set in. Now investors want to see real progress from the turnaround plan.
CEO Kaz Nejatian took over during a brutal housing market. Wednesday marks his first complete quarter running the company. His strategy focuses on cutting costs, increasing AI usage, and prioritizing transaction volume over margins.
The iBuying model depends on buying homes from sellers, making improvements, and reselling at a profit. High mortgage rates killed that equation. Buyers disappeared even as the Federal Reserve started cutting rates.
Third-quarter numbers painted a rough picture. Revenue fell 34% compared to the prior year. The company sold 2,568 homes versus 3,165 a year earlier. Inventory dropped from 6,288 properties to 3,319. Losses continued.
Dashboard Shows Green Shoots
Nejatian launched something unusual for corporate America. He created a public dashboard showing real-time business metrics. Investors can track progress weekly instead of waiting three months between earnings calls.
The data reveals encouraging trends. Weekly homes under contract started at 120 in late September. By late October, that number hit 230. The last week of January saw 303 homes under contract.
The company also rolled out new capabilities. Escrow automation speeds up transactions and cuts costs. Opendoor now makes offers in all 50 states, expanding its addressable market. Product launches continue as the team pushes operational improvements.
Wall Street expects a Q4 loss of $0.12 per share. That compares to a $0.16 loss in the same quarter last year. Revenue is forecast at $594 million, down from $1.1 billion a year ago.
Market Conditions Remain Challenging
The housing market holds the key to Opendoor’s recovery. Mortgage rates stayed stubbornly high through 2024 and into 2025 despite Fed rate cuts. Recent signals suggest that might be changing. Lower rates would bring buyers back and make the iBuying model work again.
Nejatian previously relied too heavily on outside consultants, he admitted. He brought that work in-house to save money and improve execution. The cost-cutting measures position the company for better margins when volume returns.
Two analysts cover the stock with Hold ratings issued in the past three months. The average price target of $5.00 implies modest upside from current levels. The cautious stance reflects uncertainty about when profitability returns.
Gross margin sits at 8.01%, showing how thin the business model runs. More volume becomes essential to make money at those margins. That’s why Nejatian shifted focus from chasing higher margins to closing more deals.
The 52-week trading range spans $0.51 to $10.87, highlighting extreme volatility. Average daily volume runs 71 million shares, though recent sessions saw just 32 million change hands.
Inventory management tells part of the story. The drop to 3,319 homes could mean smarter buying decisions or reduced activity. Wednesday’s earnings call should clarify which factor drove the decline and what inventory levels look like heading into 2026.
Geographic expansion to all states increases opportunity but also complexity. Executing nationwide while improving profitability creates operational challenges. The transparency dashboard lets investors judge whether the strategy is working without waiting for quarterly updates.
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