TLDR
- Palantir (PLTR) stock has declined 27% year-to-date despite delivering Q4 revenue of $1.407 billion, up 70% year-over-year and beating analyst estimates by $65.4 million
- Wedbush’s Daniel Ives maintains Outperform rating with $230 price target, implying 77% upside, calling concerns about AI disrupting software “extremely overblown”
- Full-year 2025 revenue reached $4.475 billion with US commercial revenue surging 109% and the company closing 180 deals worth over $1 million in Q4
- Ives believes Palantir’s AI Platform positions it differently from traditional software companies and predicts “a golden path to becoming a trillion-dollar market cap company”
- Wall Street consensus shows Moderate Buy rating with average price target of $192.88, suggesting 48% upside from current $130 levels
Palantir stock continues falling in 2026 even as the company posted another quarter of impressive financial results. The data analytics firm is down 27% year-to-date despite beating Wall Street expectations across the board.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
Fourth quarter revenue hit $1.407 billion, jumping 70% from the prior year. The result beat forecasts by $65.4 million. Adjusted earnings per share reached $0.25, topping estimates by $0.02.
The company’s US commercial division showed particular strength with 137% revenue growth in the quarter. Palantir closed 180 deals worth at least $1 million during the three-month period.
Full-year 2025 results were equally strong. Revenue totaled $4.475 billion, up 56% from 2024. US revenue climbed 75% to $3.32 billion for the year.
US commercial revenue surged 109% annually while US government revenue increased 55%. The company generated adjusted free cash flow of $2.270 billion in 2025.
Why the Stock Is Falling
The share price decline stems from investor worries about valuation and growth sustainability. Software stocks broadly have faced selling pressure as concerns mount about AI agents disrupting traditional subscription models.
Many investors fear that new AI tools could automate work currently handled by seat-based software systems. This threatens the predictable revenue streams that have made software stocks attractive investments.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives believes these fears are overblown. The top-ranked analyst maintains an Outperform rating on Palantir with a $230 price target.
“We believe the market is baking in a doomsday scenario for software companies in the near-term, which we believe is extremely overblown,” Ives wrote.
Analyst Remains Bullish on AI Platform
Ives called Palantir’s latest earnings “another strong drop the mic quarter of beats across the board.” He reiterated his bullish stance following the report.
The analyst argues that Palantir stands apart from other software companies facing AI headwinds. The company’s AI Platform has driven unprecedented demand across commercial and federal customers.
The platform allows users to interact with data systems using natural language without specialized training. Recent wins include partnerships with France’s DGSI intelligence agency, AIG, and UK’s Sovereign AI.
“As enterprises move from AI experimentation to production, Palantir’s value proposition becomes more relevant, not less,” Ives noted.
Path to Trillion-Dollar Valuation
Ives predicts Palantir has “a golden path to becoming a trillion-dollar market cap company.” The company currently carries a market cap around $310 billion.
The analyst’s $230 price target implies 77% upside from current levels around $130. This sits well above the Wall Street consensus target of $192.88.
Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy, 5 say Hold, and 2 recommend Sell. The average price target suggests 48% upside potential.
Palantir has climbed 1,700% over the past three years despite recent weakness. Ives expects the company will grow into its valuation as it expands its role in the AI revolution.
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