TLDR
- Michael Burry released a comprehensive substack analysis valuing Palantir at $46 per share with scenarios ranging from $21 to $146.
- The famous investor holds put options on PLTR, expressing a bearish view without directly shorting the stock.
- Burry argues Palantir’s price has detached from underlying business fundamentals, trading on leadership mystique instead of financials.
- Technical charts suggest PLTR could break below $100 with analysts identifying a potential support zone near $70.
- The critique challenges investors to reconsider whether AI momentum justifies Palantir’s current market valuation.
Michael Burry just challenged Palantir Technologies’ valuation in a way that’s impossible to ignore. The investor known for calling the 2008 financial crisis published extensive research questioning whether PLTR’s price makes economic sense.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
His assessment? Fair value sits around $46 per share. That’s a stark contrast to where the stock trades after riding the artificial intelligence wave through recent years.
Burry presented a valuation spectrum spanning $21 to $146. He stressed these figures aren’t typical analyst price targets. They represent possible outcomes depending on how Palantir’s business actually performs versus investor expectations.
The timing is critical. Palantir has become a poster child for AI investing. The company’s data analytics capabilities and government contracts have driven massive interest. Burry contends that excitement has inflated the stock beyond what financial metrics can reasonably support.
His analysis digs deeper than balance sheets. Burry spent considerable time evaluating Palantir’s organizational culture and leadership style. He believes the stock price reflects CEO Alex Karp’s reputation more than underlying business strength. Under pressure, he expects that premium to evaporate.
Put Options Signal Bearish Conviction
Burry disclosed he’s using put options rather than short selling to express his bearish thesis. This approach limits his downside risk while maintaining exposure if the stock falls. It’s a strategic position betting on lower prices ahead.
“I believe Palantir’s recent winning streak will not endure,” Burry stated in his substack titled “Palantir’s New Clothes: Foundry, AIP & the Failure of Reason.” The piece is generating serious discussion among institutional investors.
He prefaced his work by clarifying the critique isn’t aimed at management personally. That distinction matters in Palantir’s case. Critics often get dismissed as failing to understand the company’s unconventional approach rather than having legitimate valuation concerns.
Technical Outlook Supports Downside Risk
Chart analysis reinforces Burry’s skepticism. Technical expert Alex Dudov identifies PLTR trapped in a correction phase with meaningful downside vulnerability. The $100 price level represents a key test for the stock.
Dudov’s work points toward a $70 target zone. That’s where serious institutional buying might finally materialize. Until the stock reaches that area, selling pressure could dominate.
The pattern shows Palantir finished a strong rally and entered a complex correction. This is standard after big advances. Markets need to find where genuine demand exists at reduced prices.
A break under $100 could trigger faster movement toward the $70 area. The stock is hunting for a price that brings in committed buyers rather than momentum traders.
Burry’s $46 valuation factors in growth rates, profit margins, competitive landscape, and total addressable market. His broad range accounts for uncertainty around execution and market conditions. But even under favorable assumptions, he sees little justification for current pricing.
This puts investors in a tough spot. Those who bought the AI narrative must decide whether to ride out volatility or lock in gains and wait for better opportunities.
Market structure suggests institutional players are content sitting on the sidelines. That absence of support at current levels keeps the stock under pressure as it searches for equilibrium.
The $100 level deserves close attention. Breaking through could accelerate the move to $70 where buyers may finally step up with size.
Burry’s put options position aligns with technical projections showing PLTR vulnerable to a decline toward $70 before establishing a durable bottom.
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