TLDR
- Palantir stock received two Buy upgrades from Baird and HSBC analysts on February 3, 2026, with price targets of $200 and $205 respectively
- Q4 2025 revenue hit $1.407 billion, up 70% year-over-year, beating analyst estimates
- U.S. commercial segment exploded 137% year-over-year to $507 million in Q4
- Free cash flow projections increased dramatically, with Baird raising 2027 forecast from $4 billion to nearly $6 billion
- Non-GAAP operating margin reached 56.8%, up 11.7 percentage points year-over-year
Palantir Technologies received back-to-back analyst upgrades on February 3, 2026. Both Baird and HSBC moved the stock to Buy ratings after reviewing the company’s fourth-quarter results.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
William Power from Baird set a $200 price target. Stephen Bersey from HSBC went higher with a $205 target. Both analysts pointed to the company’s AI platform as a key driver of future growth.
The upgrades came after Palantir reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.407 billion. That represents 70% growth compared to the same period last year.
The results beat Wall Street expectations. HSBC had estimated $1.342 billion, while consensus forecasts came in at $1.340 million.
U.S. Commercial Segment Drives Growth
The U.S. commercial segment posted the strongest performance. Revenue in this division reached $507 million in Q4, up 137% year-over-year.
HSBC projects this segment will maintain a 58.8% revenue compound annual growth rate through 2029. The firm now expects 2026 total revenue to hit $7.527 billion, representing 68.2% year-over-year growth.
Palantir’s non-GAAP operating profit reached $798 million in Q4. That’s 114% higher than the prior year period.
The company achieved a 56.8% non-GAAP operating margin. This represents an 11.7 percentage point improvement year-over-year.
Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.25, beating estimates by $0.02. That’s an 84.9% increase compared to Q4 2024.
Free Cash Flow Projections Surge
Baird’s William Power raised his 2027 free cash flow forecast from $4 billion to nearly $6 billion. He also outlined a $7-8 billion upside scenario.
Power described Palantir as “one of the clearest AI winners” on Wall Street. He highlighted the company’s tenth consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth.
The analyst noted that free cash flow is “exploding” as the company scales its operations. He believes the recent stock pullback has created a more attractive entry point based on FCF valuation.
HSBC’s Stephen Bersey pointed to 2026 guidance that exceeded expectations. Palantir provided non-GAAP operating profit guidance of $4.134 billion for the year.
That figure is well above the pre-results consensus of $3.127 million. HSBC now expects 2026 non-GAAP operating profit to reach $4.483 billion.
Both analysts emphasized Palantir’s position in the AI market. The company’s platform connects data with applications for Western institutions.
Power called it an “AI-powered central operating system” that serves both government and commercial clients. The technology has gained traction as organizations rush to implement AI solutions.
Total contract value of new agreements reached $1.344 billion in Q4 2025. That’s up from $1.310 billion in the previous quarter.
The increase suggests growing demand for Palantir’s services. It also points to potential upside in the company’s revenue run-rate.
Bersey noted some potential risks on the horizon. He flagged possible deceleration if global conflicts ease, which could impact government contracts.
He also mentioned concerns about return on investment for enterprise AI projects. Some industry observers question whether these investments will deliver expected results.
Over the past 12 months, Palantir stock has surged 52.1%. The stock fell 9.3% over the past month but gained 0.3% over the past week.
Wall Street analysts maintain a Moderate Buy consensus rating on the stock. The average 12-month price target sits at $190.40, compared to the last closing price of $157.88.
Stephen Bersey ranks 549 out of 11,984 with a 73.08% success rate. His ratings average an 18.5% return.
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