TLDR
- Palantir stock rose 2.33% to $160.84 despite insider selling concerns, with CEO Alex Karp selling over $60 million in shares
- RBC Capital analyst set most bearish Wall Street price target at $45, representing 70% decline from current levels
- Company trades at forward P/E ratio of 250, which analyst calls “unsustainable” despite 48% revenue growth
- Commercial revenue surged 93% year-over-year but still represents only 30.5% of total revenue, with government business dominating
- Stock has gained nearly 100% year-to-date and surged 23-fold since early 2023, making it S&P 500’s best performer
Palantir Technologies climbed 2.33% to close at $160.84 on Monday, showing resilience in the face of mounting concerns. The data analytics company traded between $154.57 and $162.13 during the session.
Trading volume reached 82 million shares, above the three-month average of 71.21 million. The company’s market capitalization now stands at $385.21 billion.
Shares remain well below their 52-week high of $189.46 but are up dramatically from the year’s low of $29.31. The stock has gained nearly 100% year-to-date.
The rise came despite recent headlines about insider selling activity. CEO Alex Karp sold more than $60 million worth of shares, according to Barron’s.
Business Insider reported that Palantir has faced elevated short-seller interest and investor profit-taking since mid-August. The selling pressure hasn’t deterred retail investors from buying the dip.
Peers in the software sector moved lower during Monday’s session. Snowflake slipped 0.17% to $194.35, while Datadog dropped 1.61% to $126.31.
Wall Street’s Most Bearish Call
RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria recently issued the most pessimistic forecast on Wall Street. He set a price target of $45, representing more than 70% downside from current levels.
Jaluria’s core argument centers on valuation concerns. The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 250, which he calls “unsustainable.”
This premium exists despite strong financial performance. The company’s Q2 2025 revenue increased 48% year-over-year.
U.S. commercial revenue surged 93% during the same period. However, Jaluria believes even optimistic growth scenarios don’t justify current prices.
A recent London Stock Exchange Group survey revealed widespread analyst caution. Seventeen analysts rate the stock as “Hold,” while only four give it a “Buy” rating.
Four analysts explicitly recommend reducing or selling positions. This reflects professional institutions’ concerns about high valuations.
Revenue Mix Remains Government-Heavy
Commercial business revenue rose from $159 million in Q2 2024 to $306 million in Q2 2025. Despite this rapid growth, commercial revenue still accounts for only 30.5% of total revenue.
Government business continues to dominate the income structure. This creates dual risks for investors to consider.
First, potential government budget cuts could impact core operations. Second, political changes could affect long-term partnerships.
Jaluria believes the promotion of the AIP platform has achieved results. However, he argues Palantir’s overall growth story is “not yet transformed.”
This creates what he views as an unfavorable risk-reward profile. The analyst warns that retail speculation could amplify future pullbacks.
Since early 2023, Palantir’s stock has surged more than 23-fold. This makes it the best-performing component of the S&P 500 index.
Some analysts defend the high valuation. Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz points to the company’s scarcity in AI commercialization and government digitization.
The commercial business has maintained quarter-over-quarter growth above 20% for multiple consecutive quarters. This indicates the diversification strategy is gaining traction.
RBC’s bearish stance reflects current market divergence over AI-related stocks. Whether Palantir can support its high valuation depends on commercial business momentum and eventual revenue dominance.
