TLDR
- Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,100 on Monday, exceeding previous records
- Veteran trader Peter Brandt identified Sunday as a potential cycle peak based on halving patterns
- The four-year cycle has accurately predicted Bitcoin’s price movements in all three previous cycles
- If the historical pattern breaks, Brandt expects Bitcoin could rally to $150,000-$185,000
- Quantum computing threats to Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin holdings have emerged as a long-term concern
Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $126,100 on Monday. The milestone came just one day after a critical date identified by veteran trader Peter Brandt.
Brandt told Cointelegraph that Sunday marked 533 days after the April 20, 2024 Bitcoin halving. This matches the 533-day period from Bitcoin’s November 9, 2022 cycle low to the halving date.
The pattern has held true across three previous Bitcoin market cycles. Each cycle showed equal time periods from low to halving and halving to peak.
Bitcoin currently trades around $122,070, representing a 9.74% gain over the past 30 days. The cryptocurrency briefly surpassed $126,100 before experiencing a slight pullback.
What Happens if the Cycle Breaks
Brandt maintains a neutral position on whether the pattern will continue. He assigns equal probability to both scenarios.
If Bitcoin deviates from its historical cycle, the trader expects dramatic price movements. His projections suggest Bitcoin could reach between $150,000 and $185,000.
The veteran trader emphasizes that trends violating market cycles typically produce the most extreme price action. He states he will remain bullish while watching for counter-cyclical behavior.
Other analysts have weighed in on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Economist Timothy Peterson calculated a 50% probability that Bitcoin ends October above $140,000.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital previously suggested the market would peak in October if following the 2020 cycle pattern. He warned in July that limited time remained for price expansion.
Institutional Factors Change Market Dynamics
The Bitcoin market has evolved compared to previous cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury adoption represent new market forces.
Gemini’s Saad Ahmed explained that market cycles occur when investors get excited and overextend. Markets then crash and correct to equilibrium levels.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes projects Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. Unchained’s Joe Burnett shares this long-term price target.
Peter Brandt has also highlighted quantum computing as a potential risk to Bitcoin. He described Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million Bitcoin holdings as the “ultimate risk” to the cryptocurrency.
Capriole founder Charles Edwards raised concerns about quantum computers potentially breaking Bitcoin’s encryption. The threat centers on powerful quantum computers that could reverse-engineer private keys.
Many experts believe these concerns are premature. F2Pool co-founder Chun Wang stated that the necessary quantum technology remains decades away from reality.
Satoshi’s Bitcoin fortune has remained untouched for approximately 15 years. The coins are distributed across numerous wallets that have never shown any activity.
Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz believes Satoshi is deceased. This theory would explain why the massive Bitcoin holdings have never been moved or accessed.
Bitcoin’s price performance in the coming weeks will determine if the four-year cycle remains valid. The cryptocurrency market watches closely as this historical pattern faces its fourth test.
