TLDR
- Qualcomm posts December quarter results tonight with consensus estimates at $12.13 billion revenue and $3.39 adjusted EPS
- Shares have dropped 15% in 2026 while the semiconductor sector gained 13%, creating a 44% valuation discount to the S&P 500
- Bernstein reaffirms Outperform rating with $200 target, citing strong product portfolio despite smartphone headwinds
- Market expects roughly 6% move on earnings with key support at $146-$148 and resistance at $150-$152
- Rising memory costs have sparked concerns about smartphone demand impacting Qualcomm’s core business
Qualcomm delivers its December quarter earnings after the closing bell today. The Street expects revenue of $12.13 billion with adjusted earnings per share of $3.39.
The wireless chipmaker faces a tough year so far. Shares have tumbled 15% while the iShares Semiconductor ETF jumped 13%.
This gap highlights investor worries specific to Qualcomm’s business. Concerns about smartphone demand have weighed on the stock.
Rising memory prices are the main culprit. Higher component costs could slow device upgrades and hurt sales.
But one Wall Street analyst sees past the negativity. Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon maintained his Outperform rating on Monday with a $200 price target.
“Qualcomm has remained out of favor amid general distaste of smartphones and recent dynamics in the memory market,” Rasgon noted. He pointed to the company’s “objectively strong product portfolio” as a reason for optimism.
Deep Discount Signals Opportunity
The valuation case looks compelling. Qualcomm’s price-to-forward earnings ratio trades at a 44% discount to the S&P 500.
That’s a hefty markdown for the dominant player in mobile processors and 5G chipsets. The market has priced in pessimism that may exceed reality.
For the current quarter, analysts forecast $11.11 billion in revenue with $2.90 EPS. These forward projections will guide investor reaction as much as December’s actual results.
Options activity suggests traders expect about 6% movement following the report. This implied volatility reflects uncertainty without directional bias.
Technical Picture Shows Stabilization
Recent price action tells an interesting story. Selling pressure has weakened in recent sessions without turning bullish.
Downside attempts have repeatedly stalled. The stock has shifted from steady decline to choppy sideways trading.
This pattern indicates sellers aren’t finding willing buyers at lower prices. But aggressive buying hasn’t emerged either.
The $146 to $148 range marks critical support. Holding above this level keeps the base-building process intact.
A clean break below $146 would flip control back to sellers. That scenario could accelerate losses quickly.
Upside resistance sits at $150 to $152. Rallies that fail here would confirm range-bound behavior instead of a trend change.
The market bias score stands at -1 on a scale from -10 to +10. This reading reflects lingering weakness paired with fading downside pressure.
What Happens Next
Qualcomm trades near the low end of its post-earnings range. The corrective phase that started after last quarter continues.
Tonight’s numbers will test whether memory price fears are overblown. Management’s guidance will matter more than backward-looking results.
The company maintains leading positions in its core markets. Product strength remains intact despite market doubts.
Wall Street wants clarity on smartphone demand trends. Any signs that memory costs are actually hurting volumes will draw scrutiny.
Conversely, stable demand projections could trigger a relief rally. The 44% valuation discount leaves room for multiple expansion if concerns ease.
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