TLDR
- Rigetti Computing unveils Q4 FY2025 financial results following today’s market close on March 4, 2026.
- Wall Street forecasts losses between $0.03 and $0.04 per share, alongside projected revenues of approximately $2.33 million, representing a ~2.6% annual increase.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) stand out as the critical indicator for assessing future revenue prospects.
- RGTI stock has declined over 21% since the start of the year, despite maintaining a 116% gain across the trailing 52-week period.
- Wall Street consensus leans toward Moderate Buy, with analyst price targets averaging $38.75.
Rigetti Computing prepares to unveil its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter performance metrics following the conclusion of trading today, March 4, 2026.
Analyst projections point toward a per-share loss ranging from $0.03 to $0.04. This would represent notable progress compared to the $0.08 loss posted during the same quarter last year.
Revenue projections hover around $2.33 million, marking approximately 2.6% growth versus the prior year period. While this increase appears modest, it deserves consideration against Q3 2025’s backdrop, which witnessed an almost 18% year-over-year revenue decline.
The firm’s net margin currently registers at -10,321.93%, underscoring its pre-profitability status and substantial research and development investments. Return on equity stands at -43.45%, while return on assets measures -31.72%.
On a positive note, Rigetti maintains minimal leverage. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio registers just 0.02, substantially below sector norms.
RGTI stock fluctuated between $16.79 and $17.69 prior to the earnings announcement. Shares have declined more than 21% year-to-date, reflecting broader technology sector pressure stemming from valuation anxieties.
However, examining the full 52-week period reveals RGTI climbing 116%. Investors with longer holding periods continue enjoying substantial returns.
The Critical Metric Everyone’s Watching
For Rigetti, Remaining Performance Obligations — commonly abbreviated as RPOs — represent the data point receiving greatest attention from market participants and industry observers.
RPOs quantify the dollar value of contractual commitments awaiting fulfillment. For an enterprise like Rigetti, which monetizes quantum processing unit (QPU) access alongside cloud-based services, this metric reveals the volume of guaranteed revenue awaiting recognition.
RPOs experienced a dip during early 2025 before staging a subsequent recovery. Strong numbers in today’s report would demonstrate customers are committing to extended-duration agreements rather than sporadic transactions.
System Launch Timeline Under Scrutiny
Rigetti postponed its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system introduction until the conclusion of Q1 FY2026. Stakeholders will seek confirmation regarding whether this revised schedule remains viable.
The organization had also previously pledged to deliver a chiplet-architecture quantum system exceeding 100 qubits with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity before 2025’s conclusion. Whether this milestone was achieved — or fell short — will likely surface during today’s conference call.
Historical earnings responses have proven unpredictable. During Q3 2025, Rigetti surpassed EPS projections by $0.01, yet shares declined 5.08% the following session. In Q2 2025, an earnings miss paradoxically triggered a 6.42% stock appreciation. The correlation between performance versus expectations and subsequent price action remains ambiguous.
Seven analysts currently cover RGTI, with five assigning Buy ratings and two recommending Hold. The consensus price target reaches $38.75, suggesting potential upside of approximately 128% from current trading levels.
Rigetti’s Q4 FY2025 financial disclosure is scheduled for release after today’s market close, March 4, 2026.
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